Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Centro Democrático (CD) for second place in Colombia's Chamber of Representatives election, with 93.1% implied probability, driven by consistent polling averages showing the party trailing only a narrow leader while far ahead of rivals like Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC) at 5.1%. Recent surveys from the past month, including those by Invamer and Datexco, reinforce CD's structural advantages from its established base in Antioquia and national organizational strength, unchanged by any major developments in the last 30 days amid a quiet pre-campaign period. No scandals, defections, or endorsements have disrupted this positioning for the 2026 vote under proportional representation. Scenarios that could challenge CD include a high-profile merger among center-left parties boosting PLC or Historic Pact, sudden leadership shifts, or Petro administration policy shifts alienating CD voters, though historical base rates suggest stability. Key upcoming primaries and candidate announcements could introduce volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCentro Democrático (CD) 93.3%
Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC) 5.5%
Historic Pact for Colombia (PH) <1%
Partido Conservador Colombiano (Conservative) <1%
$88,728 Vol.
$88,728 Vol.
Centro Democrático (CD)
93%
Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC)
6%
Historic Pact for Colombia (PH)
<1%
Partido Conservador Colombiano (Conservative)
<1%
Cambio Radical (CR)
<1%
Green Alliance (AV)
<1%
Partido de la U (La U)
<1%
MIRA-CJL coalition (MIRA-CJL)
<1%
Centro Democrático (CD) 93.3%
Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC) 5.5%
Historic Pact for Colombia (PH) <1%
Partido Conservador Colombiano (Conservative) <1%
$88,728 Vol.
$88,728 Vol.
Centro Democrático (CD)
93%
Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC)
6%
Historic Pact for Colombia (PH)
<1%
Partido Conservador Colombiano (Conservative)
<1%
Cambio Radical (CR)
<1%
Green Alliance (AV)
<1%
Partido de la U (La U)
<1%
MIRA-CJL coalition (MIRA-CJL)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Centro Democrático (CD) for second place in Colombia's Chamber of Representatives election, with 93.1% implied probability, driven by consistent polling averages showing the party trailing only a narrow leader while far ahead of rivals like Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC) at 5.1%. Recent surveys from the past month, including those by Invamer and Datexco, reinforce CD's structural advantages from its established base in Antioquia and national organizational strength, unchanged by any major developments in the last 30 days amid a quiet pre-campaign period. No scandals, defections, or endorsements have disrupted this positioning for the 2026 vote under proportional representation. Scenarios that could challenge CD include a high-profile merger among center-left parties boosting PLC or Historic Pact, sudden leadership shifts, or Petro administration policy shifts alienating CD voters, though historical base rates suggest stability. Key upcoming primaries and candidate announcements could introduce volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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