Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Scottish National Party (SNP) at nearly 97% implied probability to secure the most seats in the May 7, 2026, Scottish Parliament (Holyrood) election, driven by consistent polling leads under the additional member system. Recent Lord Ashcroft polling (released March 23) shows SNP at 39% on the constituency vote—far ahead of Reform UK (14%), Scottish Labour (10%), and others—while list vote projections position SNP for 60+ seats, per aggregators like Ballot Box Scotland. John Swinney's campaign launch on March 26 underscores SNP recovery amid Labour's struggles and Reform's regional list strength without threatening overall victory. With four in ten voters open to switching per Ipsos, late scandals, leadership gaffes, or turnout shifts in swing constituencies could narrow the gap, though historical incumbency advantages bolster SNP's edge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedScotland Parliamentary Election Winner
Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner
Scottish National Party 96.9%
Reform UK 1.2%
Scottish Labour <1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats <1%
$1,213,536 Vol.
$1,213,536 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Scottish National Party
97%
Reform UK
1%
Scottish Labour
1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats
1%
Sovereignty Party
<1%
Scottish Conservatives
<1%
Scottish Green Party
<1%
Alba Party
<1%
Scottish National Party 96.9%
Reform UK 1.2%
Scottish Labour <1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats <1%
$1,213,536 Vol.
$1,213,536 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Scottish National Party
$930,981 Vol.
97%
Reform UK
$79,663 Vol.
1%
Scottish Labour
$40,171 Vol.
1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats
$102,463 Vol.
1%
Sovereignty Party
$3,894 Vol.
<1%
Scottish Conservatives
$4,723 Vol.
<1%
Scottish Green Party
$35,630 Vol.
<1%
Alba Party
$16,012 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Scottish National Party (SNP) at nearly 97% implied probability to secure the most seats in the May 7, 2026, Scottish Parliament (Holyrood) election, driven by consistent polling leads under the additional member system. Recent Lord Ashcroft polling (released March 23) shows SNP at 39% on the constituency vote—far ahead of Reform UK (14%), Scottish Labour (10%), and others—while list vote projections position SNP for 60+ seats, per aggregators like Ballot Box Scotland. John Swinney's campaign launch on March 26 underscores SNP recovery amid Labour's struggles and Reform's regional list strength without threatening overall victory. With four in ten voters open to switching per Ipsos, late scandals, leadership gaffes, or turnout shifts in swing constituencies could narrow the gap, though historical incumbency advantages bolster SNP's edge.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,213,536End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Scottish National Party (SNP) at nearly 97% implied probability to secure the most seats in the May 7, 2026, Scottish Parliament (Holyrood) election, driven by consistent polling leads under the additional member system. Recent Lord Ashcroft polling (released March 23) shows SNP at 39% on the constituency vote—far ahead of Reform UK (14%), Scottish Labour (10%), and others—while list vote projections position SNP for 60+ seats, per aggregators like Ballot Box Scotland. John Swinney's campaign launch on March 26 underscores SNP recovery amid Labour's struggles and Reform's regional list strength without threatening overall victory. With four in ten voters open to switching per Ipsos, late scandals, leadership gaffes, or turnout shifts in swing constituencies could narrow the gap, though historical incumbency advantages bolster SNP's edge.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Volume
$1,213,536End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Scottish National Party (SNP) at nearly 97% implied probability to secure the most seats in the May 7, 2026, Scottish Parliament (Holyrood) election, driven by consistent polling leads under the additional member system. Recent Lord Ashcroft polling (released March 23) shows SNP at 39% on the constituency vote—far ahead of Reform UK (14%), Scottish Labour (10%), and others—while list vote projections position SNP for 60+ seats, per aggregators like Ballot Box Scotland. John Swinney's campaign launch on March 26 underscores SNP recovery amid Labour's struggles and Reform's regional list strength without threatening overall victory. With four in ten voters open to switching per Ipsos, late scandals, leadership gaffes, or turnout shifts in swing constituencies could narrow the gap, though historical incumbency advantages bolster SNP's edge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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