Traders heavily favor the Scottish National Party (SNP) at 96.4% implied probability to win the most seats in the next Scottish Parliament election, due by May 2026, reflecting their historical dominance as the largest party since 2007 and current stability under First Minister John Swinney, who assumed leadership in May 2024 after Humza Yousaf's resignation amid a minority government. Recent polls show SNP leading Scottish Labour by narrow margins in proportional representation projections, bolstered by consistent support in key regions despite SNP financial investigations and rising Reform UK sentiment. This commanding position could shift with a major scandal, leadership crisis, coalition breakthroughs for opponents, or turnout swings in the additional member system favoring challengers like Labour or Conservatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedScotland Parliamentary Election Winner
Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner
Scottish National Party 96.7%
Scottish Labour 1.2%
Reform UK <1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats <1%
$1,195,691 Vol.
$1,195,691 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Scottish National Party
97%
Scottish Labour
1%
Reform UK
1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats
1%
Sovereignty Party
1%
Scottish Green Party
<1%
Scottish Conservatives
<1%
Alba Party
<1%
Scottish National Party 96.7%
Scottish Labour 1.2%
Reform UK <1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats <1%
$1,195,691 Vol.
$1,195,691 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Scottish National Party
$930,852 Vol.
97%
Scottish Labour
$40,071 Vol.
1%
Reform UK
$62,503 Vol.
1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats
$102,372 Vol.
1%
Sovereignty Party
$3,803 Vol.
1%
Scottish Green Party
$35,539 Vol.
<1%
Scottish Conservatives
$4,632 Vol.
<1%
Alba Party
$15,921 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Traders heavily favor the Scottish National Party (SNP) at 96.4% implied probability to win the most seats in the next Scottish Parliament election, due by May 2026, reflecting their historical dominance as the largest party since 2007 and current stability under First Minister John Swinney, who assumed leadership in May 2024 after Humza Yousaf's resignation amid a minority government. Recent polls show SNP leading Scottish Labour by narrow margins in proportional representation projections, bolstered by consistent support in key regions despite SNP financial investigations and rising Reform UK sentiment. This commanding position could shift with a major scandal, leadership crisis, coalition breakthroughs for opponents, or turnout swings in the additional member system favoring challengers like Labour or Conservatives.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,195,691End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Traders heavily favor the Scottish National Party (SNP) at 96.4% implied probability to win the most seats in the next Scottish Parliament election, due by May 2026, reflecting their historical dominance as the largest party since 2007 and current stability under First Minister John Swinney, who assumed leadership in May 2024 after Humza Yousaf's resignation amid a minority government. Recent polls show SNP leading Scottish Labour by narrow margins in proportional representation projections, bolstered by consistent support in key regions despite SNP financial investigations and rising Reform UK sentiment. This commanding position could shift with a major scandal, leadership crisis, coalition breakthroughs for opponents, or turnout swings in the additional member system favoring challengers like Labour or Conservatives.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
Volume
$1,195,691End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders heavily favor the Scottish National Party (SNP) at 96.4% implied probability to win the most seats in the next Scottish Parliament election, due by May 2026, reflecting their historical dominance as the largest party since 2007 and current stability under First Minister John Swinney, who assumed leadership in May 2024 after Humza Yousaf's resignation amid a minority government. Recent polls show SNP leading Scottish Labour by narrow margins in proportional representation projections, bolstered by consistent support in key regions despite SNP financial investigations and rising Reform UK sentiment. This commanding position could shift with a major scandal, leadership crisis, coalition breakthroughs for opponents, or turnout swings in the additional member system favoring challengers like Labour or Conservatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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