Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) 90%

Sweden Democrats (SD) 5.0%

Moderate Party (M) 4.2%

Green Party (MP) <1%

Polymarket

$883,305 Vol.

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) 90%

Sweden Democrats (SD) 5.0%

Moderate Party (M) 4.2%

Green Party (MP) <1%

Polymarket

$883,305 Vol.

Market icon

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)

$25,295 Vol.

90%

Market icon

Sweden Democrats (SD)

$368,506 Vol.

5%

Market icon

Moderate Party (M)

$368,638 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Green Party (MP)

$78,566 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Liberals (L)

$10,703 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Left Party (V)

$10,097 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Citizens' Coalition (MED)

$10,395 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Centre Party (C)

$11,106 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Christian Democrats (KD)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) with 89.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Sweden's 2026 parliamentary election under proportional representation, reflecting consistent double-digit leads in the latest November 2024 polls averaging 33-36% support for S versus 19-21% for Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderates (M). This positioning stems from the centre-right government's eroding popularity amid persistent gang violence, high immigration concerns, and economic pressures including inflation and housing shortages, boosting S as the primary opposition. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming local elections in 2026 and potential coalition dynamics could influence trajectories; late scandals or policy reversals remain low-probability risks to S's frontrunner status.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$883,305
End Date
Sep 13, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 11:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) with 89.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Sweden's 2026 parliamentary election under proportional representation, reflecting consistent double-digit leads in the latest November 2024 polls averaging 33-36% support for S versus 19-21% for Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderates (M). This positioning stems from the centre-right government's eroding popularity amid persistent gang violence, high immigration concerns, and economic pressures including inflation and housing shortages, boosting S as the primary opposition. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming local elections in 2026 and potential coalition dynamics could influence trajectories; late scandals or policy reversals remain low-probability risks to S's frontrunner status.

Trader consensus heavily favors the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) with 89.5% implied probability to win the most seats in Sweden's 2026 parliamentary election under proportional representation, reflecting consistent double-digit leads in the latest November 2024 polls averaging 33-36% support for S versus 19-21% for Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderates (M). This positioning stems from the centre-right government's eroding popularity amid persistent gang violence, high immigration concerns, and economic pressures including inflation and housing shortages, boosting S as the primary opposition. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming local elections in 2026 and potential coalition dynamics could influence trajectories; late scandals or policy reversals remain low-probability risks to S's frontrunner status.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)" at 90%, followed by "Sweden Democrats (SD)" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" has generated $883.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" is "Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sweden Democrats (SD)" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.