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Elections·Main Election

Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

icon for Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Elections·Main Election

Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Željka Cvijanović 76%

Siniša Karan 8.7%

Branko Blanuša 7.4%

Nebojša Vukanović 7%

Polymarket

$18,916 Vol.

Željka Cvijanović 76%

Siniša Karan 8.7%

Branko Blanuša 7.4%

Nebojša Vukanović 7%

Polymarket

$18,916 Vol.

icon for Željka Cvijanović

Željka Cvijanović

$15,900 Vol.

76%

icon for Siniša Karan

Siniša Karan

$1,146 Vol.

9%

icon for Branko Blanuša

Branko Blanuša

$598 Vol.

7%

icon for Nebojša Vukanović

Nebojša Vukanović

$914 Vol.

7%

icon for Draško Stanivuković

Draško Stanivuković

$358 Vol.

7%

The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count. If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Željka Cvijanović leads the market for the Serb seat in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency ahead of the October 2026 general election, reflecting her position as the incumbent SNSD nominee and the party’s continued organizational strength in Republika Srpska. SNSD secured the entity presidency in the November 2025 snap contest and February 2026 rerun through Siniša Karan after Milorad Dodik’s removal, preserving the party’s voter base and institutional advantages. The opposition remains fragmented across SDS and smaller groups, limiting unified challenges. Traders price the remaining listed candidates—Siniša Karan, Branko Blanuša, Nebojša Vukanović, and Draško Stanivuković—at single-digit levels, consistent with historical patterns where the dominant RS party has retained the Serb presidency slot in recent cycles. The outcome hinges on turnout and any late shifts in entity-level dynamics before election day.

The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.

If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,916
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 7:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count. If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count. If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Željka Cvijanović leads the market for the Serb seat in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency ahead of the October 2026 general election, reflecting her position as the incumbent SNSD nominee and the party’s continued organizational strength in Republika Srpska. SNSD secured the entity presidency in the November 2025 snap contest and February 2026 rerun through Siniša Karan after Milorad Dodik’s removal, preserving the party’s voter base and institutional advantages. The opposition remains fragmented across SDS and smaller groups, limiting unified challenges. Traders price the remaining listed candidates—Siniša Karan, Branko Blanuša, Nebojša Vukanović, and Draško Stanivuković—at single-digit levels, consistent with historical patterns where the dominant RS party has retained the Serb presidency slot in recent cycles. The outcome hinges on turnout and any late shifts in entity-level dynamics before election day.

The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.

If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,916
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 7:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count. If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Željka Cvijanović" at 76%, followed by "Siniša Karan" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?" has generated $18.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?" is "Željka Cvijanović" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Siniša Karan" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.