Recent polling in the final days before Andalusia’s May 17 regional vote shows the Partido Popular under incumbent president Juanma Moreno projected to win 54–58 seats in the 109-seat parliament, placing it just above or at the 55-seat threshold for an absolute majority. Surveys from Sigma Dos, 40dB, and others indicate PP support near 43 percent, well ahead of the PSOE while Vox and smaller left-wing parties remain below levels that would force coalition talks. Moreno has focused the closing campaign on securing a “sufficient” majority to ensure stable governance without external support. These late indicators of a narrow but attainable solo majority explain the current trader consensus around a slight edge for the “yes” outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$5,838 Vol.
$5,838 Vol.
$5,838 Vol.
$5,838 Vol.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling in the final days before Andalusia’s May 17 regional vote shows the Partido Popular under incumbent president Juanma Moreno projected to win 54–58 seats in the 109-seat parliament, placing it just above or at the 55-seat threshold for an absolute majority. Surveys from Sigma Dos, 40dB, and others indicate PP support near 43 percent, well ahead of the PSOE while Vox and smaller left-wing parties remain below levels that would force coalition talks. Moreno has focused the closing campaign on securing a “sufficient” majority to ensure stable governance without external support. These late indicators of a narrow but attainable solo majority explain the current trader consensus around a slight edge for the “yes” outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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