Yashar leads trader expectations to finish first in the October 27 Knesset election because recent polling averages place it at 22–23 seats, narrowly ahead of Likud’s typical 21–22. The new centrist party, founded in 2025 by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, has maintained stable support as voters weigh security credentials and post-October 7 priorities against the incumbent coalition’s record. Likud trails in most surveys but shows volatility across pollsters, with some projecting stronger results for Netanyahu’s bloc. The broader Zionist opposition and Netanyahu-aligned camps remain closely matched near 50–52 seats each, short of a majority, while smaller lists hover near the 3.25% threshold. Surplus-vote agreements and turnout coordination among opposition parties are viewed as potential swing factors in the final month.