**Recent Israeli polls show Yashar and Likud trading narrow leads or near-ties in projected Knesset seats, with averages placing both parties in the low-to-mid 20s and neither bloc consistently reaching the 61-seat majority threshold.** This keeps the race for the largest single list extremely close, as reflected in trader pricing. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, a new centrist list emphasizing security and national service, has edged ahead in several surveys from outlets such as Channel 12 and Kan 11, while Likud has shown resilience or gains in others like Channel 14. With roughly two weeks until the October 27 vote and notable undecided voters, small shifts in turnout, surplus agreements, or late-campaign dynamics among smaller lists could determine which party finishes first in seat count.