Yashar, led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, leads most September 2026 polls with 22–24 projected Knesset seats compared to Likud’s 18–22, reflecting sustained voter preference for Eisenkot over Netanyahu on security and leadership questions. The October 27 election follows completion of the prior Knesset term, with party lists finalized in early September and some Arab slates facing disqualification challenges. Netanyahu’s right-religious bloc hovers near or below 52 seats while the broader opposition bloc sits around 52–55, leaving neither side assured of a 61-seat majority without cross-bloc deals. Trader consensus assigns Yashar the highest probability of emerging as the largest party amid these trends.