Recent polling shows Likud and Yashar locked in a near-tie for the largest party ahead of the October 27 vote, with neither the Netanyahu-aligned bloc nor the Zionist opposition bloc consistently reaching the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar has led most surveys in recent weeks while Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud has gained ground in others, reflecting fluctuating voter priorities around security and governance. Arab parties continue to hold steady combined strength, yet coalition math remains uncertain regardless of which side finishes first. This deadlock, combined with shifting head-to-head preferences between the two leaders, sustains the narrow spread between the top two outcomes in trader pricing.