Recent polling for Israel's October 2026 Knesset election consistently places Likud in the low-to-mid 20s seats, with surveys from mid-June showing 22-24 seats depending on the pollster. This range underpins trader focus on the 25-29 bucket as the modal outcome, reflecting modest projected gains for the party amid stable support for Benjamin Netanyahu as its leader. Developments such as the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and related regional diplomacy have contributed to slight volatility in bloc alignments, while opposition consolidation around parties like Yashar and Together has not significantly eroded Likud's position as the single largest party. Ongoing coalition pressures and threshold dynamics for smaller right-wing partners add uncertainty that keeps adjacent ranges like 20-24 and 30-34 competitively priced.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25-29 35%
20-24 21%
30-34 16%
<20 14.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 27, 2026
<20
15%
20-24
15%
25-29
35%
30-34
16%
35+
15%
25-29 35%
20-24 21%
30-34 16%
<20 14.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 27, 2026
<20
$3,940 Vol.
15%
20-24
$353 Vol.
15%
25-29
$352 Vol.
35%
30-34
$512 Vol.
16%
35+
$331 Vol.
15%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 2026 Knesset election consistently places Likud in the low-to-mid 20s seats, with surveys from mid-June showing 22-24 seats depending on the pollster. This range underpins trader focus on the 25-29 bucket as the modal outcome, reflecting modest projected gains for the party amid stable support for Benjamin Netanyahu as its leader. Developments such as the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and related regional diplomacy have contributed to slight volatility in bloc alignments, while opposition consolidation around parties like Yashar and Together has not significantly eroded Likud's position as the single largest party. Ongoing coalition pressures and threshold dynamics for smaller right-wing partners add uncertainty that keeps adjacent ranges like 20-24 and 30-34 competitively priced.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$5,488End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 2026 Knesset election consistently places Likud in the low-to-mid 20s seats, with surveys from mid-June showing 22-24 seats depending on the pollster. This range underpins trader focus on the 25-29 bucket as the modal outcome, reflecting modest projected gains for the party amid stable support for Benjamin Netanyahu as its leader. Developments such as the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and related regional diplomacy have contributed to slight volatility in bloc alignments, while opposition consolidation around parties like Yashar and Together has not significantly eroded Likud's position as the single largest party. Ongoing coalition pressures and threshold dynamics for smaller right-wing partners add uncertainty that keeps adjacent ranges like 20-24 and 30-34 competitively priced.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$5,488End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Israel's October 2026 Knesset election consistently places Likud in the low-to-mid 20s seats, with surveys from mid-June showing 22-24 seats depending on the pollster. This range underpins trader focus on the 25-29 bucket as the modal outcome, reflecting modest projected gains for the party amid stable support for Benjamin Netanyahu as its leader. Developments such as the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and related regional diplomacy have contributed to slight volatility in bloc alignments, while opposition consolidation around parties like Yashar and Together has not significantly eroded Likud's position as the single largest party. Ongoing coalition pressures and threshold dynamics for smaller right-wing partners add uncertainty that keeps adjacent ranges like 20-24 and 30-34 competitively priced.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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