Name: Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
Start: 2025-06-02T22:17:38.035225Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

December 31, 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

December 31, 2026

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Israel has launched a significant military offensive against Syria, targeting key locations including the Presidential Palace and General Staff HQ in Damascus, as well as preparing for extended combat operations. This escalation follows broken security agreements in Suwayda and aims to prevent a unified Syria, further complicating potential normalization of relations amidst ongoing regional tensions.

Israel Bombs Syria

Israel, who less than a week ago was bombing Iran, is now bombing the military and government in Damascus that kicked Iranian-backed forces out of Syria. Israel once again proves that will do anything to prevent a unified and stable Syria.

BREAKING: Israel launches massive attack on Syrian capital.
https://t.co/sKKkiow9fN

Israeli negotiation tactics: we will bomb your capital until you normalize with us on our terms

Israel is not working towards a de-militarized zone in southern Syria, it is working towards a re-militarized zone by Israeli proxy https://t.co/kJYVc46pxY

JUST IN: 🇮🇱🇸🇾 Israeli Defense Forces say they are preparing for several days of combat in Syria.

After negotiating 3 security agreements with #Suwayda in 5 months &amp; all 3 being swiftly broken by Hikmat al-Hijri, #Syria's gov't is *very* unlikely to stop this time -- especially as Hijri is now on the run.

#Israel's intervention (about to sharply escalate) adds fuel to fire.

🇸🇾 Israel has bombed Syria’s Presidential Palace and General Staff HQ in Damascus — the most direct strike on Syrian leadership to date.

🇹🇷 Turkish officials reportedly urged Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to evacuate — he refused.

🇮🇱  Israeli military: “We are preparing for https://t.co/uVlbbyMYMr

🧵Some background on why Israel is bombing Syria, where the Druze fit into the story, and what it means for Israel-Syria normalisation.

——

The likelihood of Israel normalizing relations with Syria has taken a hit following the murder of Syrian Druze by Ahmed al-Shara’s https://t.co/2ESkLDrvci

Syria and Israel are reportedly engaged in quiet talks to normalize relations, with a potential peace agreement expected before the end of 2025, including discussions on the Golan Heights' status. The negotiations, facilitated by U.S. envoys and influenced by regional dynamics, also hint at broader normalization efforts involving Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accords.

Syria-Israel Peace Talks

President of Syria al-Golani agrees to normalization with Israel and recognition of the Golan as Israeli and not Syrian territory.
However, some still doubt that ISIS and terrorist groups are not Mossad agents. https://t.co/7cv3GD0vr1

Optimistic noises in Israel that we may be on the brink of a breakthrough to end the war, bring all the hostages home, and normalize relations with Syria, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia. Sounds too good to be true. Please God.

"Israel and Syria are on the brink of a peace treaty. What you see happening is that you've weakened the head of the terror octopus to the point where the rest of the region is finally looking at a future where maybe there will be peace."

Scott Jennings is right. https://t.co/k1sbi9XGb0

BREAKING 🇸🇾🇮🇷🇮🇱🔥 Syrian President Al-Sharaa in talks to handover the #GolanHeight to Israeli Government after many years of Conflicts. https://t.co/XotyPP4TMe

Syria can barely function and the priority is normalization with Israel?

Now you know what the war was about in case you weren't already deprogrammed.

🇮🇱🇸🇾 SCOOP: Israel and Syria will sign a peace agreement before the end of 2025, a Syrian source with knowledge of the matter tells me. 

Under the agreement, Israel will gradually withdraw from all Syrian territory it seized after December 8, 2024, including the peak of Mount

JUST IN: Israeli Foreign Minister says Israel intends to keep the Golan Heights as a condition for normalization with Syria.

The irony of Jolani giving away the Golan. https://t.co/zY7s93kRuP

🚨BREAKING: Trump and Bibi’s Bold Plan

Shortly after the Iran strikes, Trump and Netanyahu quietly agreed to a new vision:

— End Gaza war in 2 weeks
— Saudi &amp; Syrian normalization
— Abraham Accords expansion
— A 2-state framework on America and Israel’s terms

🧵 https://t.co/Fm3lZ07Tba

Wait, so Trump secured a peace between India and Pakistan, DRC and Rwanda, Israel and Iran, Syria and Lebanon want in on the Abraham Accords, is working on Ukraine and Russia, and we're supposed to believe it's not political if he doesn't get a Nobel Peace Prize?

A message to our Sunni brothers in Syria

Al-Julani has openly admitted that he is engaged in indirect negotiations with Tel Aviv.

Yesterday’s (Friday) report in the Israeli newspaper Maariv, citing Israeli sources, revealed that negotiations between Israel and Syria 'have https://t.co/9cFZQbFSEN

US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, who is also the special envoy for Syria, confirmed Syria and Israel are having "positive direct talks about all issues".

From an ISIS emir to an Al-Qaeda emir, to the self-appointed president to a friend of Israel: what a career.

BREAKING: Israel and Syria will sign a peace deal before the end of 2025, per i24.

Israel will withdraw from Syrian territory seized after Dec 8, 2024—including parts of Mount Hermon.

Relations will be fully normalized and the Golan Heights will become “a garden for peace.”

🚨 SCOTT JENNINGS NAILS IT: "The [Iran] ceasefire is holding. Apparently, Israel and Syria are on the brink of a peace treaty. Apparently, we're on the brink of expanding the Abraham Accords."

"I think what you see happening right now is that you've weakened the head of the https://t.co/ybuKeLxb5c

🇸🇾|🇮🇱 Al-Jolani did not protest Israel's use of Syrian airspace to attack Iran. 

According to Israeli media, Israel &amp; Syria will sign a peace agreement before the end of 2025. Traders at polymarket also see high probabilities this happens.

It looks like Al-Jolani will soon walk https://t.co/sKzKHFqsHD

Occupied Syria, the way of all 'color revolutions'. 
Yedioth Ahronoth:
•Israel and the ruling regime in Syria are preparing to normalize relations.
•The expected agreement includes official recognition of the Golan Heights as part of Israeli sovereignty.
•Under the agreement, https://t.co/VzwJaFwu7K

Just IN:  Syria to join Abraham Accord and normalise relations with Israel.

BIG:  Israel and Syria aim to reach a peace deal by year’s end.

The deal includes Israel’s withdrawal from all Syrian land captured after Dec. 8.

Golan Heights would be turned into a “peace garden.”

Source: Syrian official to Israel’s Channel 12

U.S. ENVOY SAYS SYRIA IS HOLDING QUIET TALKS WITH ISRAEL

JOLANI IS A DISGUSTING GUY https://t.co/dTdFT1iOk4

NEW: Israel and Syria will sign a peace agreement before the end of 2025, a Syrian source with knowledge of the matter tells i24News

BREAKING:

Israel and Syria are preparing to normalize relations.

The expected agreement between Syria and Israel includes the formal annexation of the Golan Heights under Israeli sovereignty. https://t.co/9M6nshe870

Zionist Rabbi Abraham Cooper revealed that he visited Syria and spent two hours in talks with self-appointed President Abu Mohamad Julani, amid reports of ongoing normalization discussions between Syria and the Israeli entity.

❗️To the daydreamers of the Muslim Brotherhood and https://t.co/sX4vAm2jpS

Jummah Mubarak to all Muslims. 

So the #Wahhabis supported their dajjalic ‘revolution’ in #Syria in order to normalise ties with Israel? 

Qaeda/ISIS/Nusra Wahhabists will forever be dogs of hell. https://t.co/ZkoCOmwoqc

JUST IN: U.S. ENVOY SAYS SYRIA IS HOLDING QUIET TALKS WITH ISRAEL https://t.co/CSqR5pDdT1

Saudi Arabia and Syria are reportedly moving toward normalization, with Syria expected to join the Abraham Accords and formally recognize the Golan Heights as Israeli territory.

🇺🇸🇮🇱 After the U.S. strike on Iran, Trump and Netanyahu agreed to end the Gaza war within two weeks, - Israel Hayom

UAE, Egypt, and two other Arab states will jointly govern Gaza, replacing Hamas. Leaders of the group will be exiled, hostages freed.

Saudi Arabia and Syria to https://t.co/8cXtXfllyR

Syria Envoy Tom Barrack to Al-Jazeera: Syria and Israel are quietly holding direct talks, with both sides open to normalization. Syrian officials hint peace may come by 2028. Israeli NSC Chief confirms regular contact; Damascus seeks to halt Israeli attacks in Quneitra. https://t.co/rmB9YZ1eMd

White House expects Syria to normalize ties with Israel amid "quiet talks"

The current Syrian head Jolani came to power as part of a CIA operation to topple the former government of Bashar al Assad. https://t.co/BHNeR1v0D6

🇸🇾 🇮🇱 U.S. ENVOY SAYS SYRIA HOLDING QUIET TALKS WITH ISRAEL

U.S. Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrak reportedly revealed that Syria’s new administration is engaged in behind the scenes talks with Israel on all fronts, including recent Israeli incursions and airstrikes. 

Barrak https://t.co/FazxtBpvtd https://t.co/mFzMNzcuEw

Israeli Foreign Minister: In any normalization agreement with Syria, it will be stipulated that Israel will remain in the Golan Heights. Syrian recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan will be a good first step.  https://t.co/E0LADVlInC

According to Israeli media, Syria’s new dictator is close to a normalization deal with the Israelis:

Trump-brokered: Netanyahu and Al-Julani close to signing peace agreement | Maariv News https://t.co/h6Ectq1BA0

The White House spokeswoman declared: "We are at the dawn of a new

US Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrak said the current Syrian administration is conducting quiet talks with Israel on all issues, including the Israeli Incursion and bombardment in Syria. He said the Sharaa government does not want war with Israel.”he called for giving the new

White House expects Syria to normalize ties with Israel amid 'quiet talks'
https://t.co/p7bzkTvRfB

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states.    

Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify.

Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.

Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Syria initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between July 24, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Syrian forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.

Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of July 24, 2025. This includes the Israeli controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Syria strikes Israel by December 31?

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has ceased all ground operations within and has withdrawn all ground forces from Gaza between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn into or behind intended buffer zones, even if that zone is established on internationally recognized Palestinian territory.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 25th Knesset, which is the sitting parliament of Israel, is dissolved between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, the Israeli government officially and unambiguously acknowledges that it possesses nuclear weapons by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".  

Leaked documents, anonymous sources, or reports from non-Israeli officials will not alone qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Israel confirms it has nuclear weapons in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States withdraws all conventional combat forces from Syria by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

This market refers only to conventional U.S. military forces operating under the Ministry of Defense, such as ground forces, air forces, or naval personnel. The presence of private military contractors (PMCs), military advisors, or special operations forces will not disqualify the market from resolving to "Yes," provided there are no conventional U.S. military forces actively operating in Syria.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is sufficient that the United States announces all conventional combat forces have withdrawn from all Syrian territory, regardless of whether some Syrian territory remains under their control.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government be a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

U.S. withdraws from Syria in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Israel between September 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Sanctions could include measures like tariffs, trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, restrictions on specific individuals, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions.

Sanctions against Israeli citizens or entities which do not directly target the Israeli state or members of the Israeli government will not qualify.

The passage of an official act authorizing sanctions on Israel within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when the sanctions come into effect.

Only the imposition of sanctions on Israel by the EU as an entity will qualify; if individual member states of the EU apply sanctions against Israel (e.g., France imposes novel trade restrictions on Israel unilaterally), it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the European Union; however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

EU sanctions on Israel by December 31?

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter Suwayda Governorate in Syria for military operations between July 17, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within Suwayda Governorate will count.

Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025?

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut between November 24, 2025, 11:30PM Israel Standard Time (IST) and the listed date, Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.

For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the West Bank's soil between November 27, 2025, 3:00 AM IST and the listed date 11:59 PM Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the Israeli military that impact the West Bank's ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the West Bank counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the West Bank's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Israeli military will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?

On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire.  Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm.

An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?

If Donald J. Trump visits Israel by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Israel. Whether or not Trump enters Israeli airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Trump, information released by his verified social media accounts, and official information from Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit Israel again by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either China (People's Republic of China) or Japan formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from either the Chinese or Japanese government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

China x Japan sever diplomatic relations in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
 
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

December 31, 2025
$795,393 Vol.
2%
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June 30, 2026
$15,532 Vol.
21%
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December 31, 2026
$14,434 Vol.
36%
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Market Context

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Rules

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Market Context

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

About

Related

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

December 31, 2025$795,393 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes2.3¢buy No98.0¢

June 30, 2026$15,532 Vol.21%0123456789%buy Yes23¢buy No81¢

December 31, 2026$14,434 Vol.36%0123456789%buy Yes37¢buy No65¢

Market Context

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Rules

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Market Context

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

About

Related

December 31, 2025
$795,393 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

June 30, 2026
$15,532 Vol.
21%
0123456789
%

December 31, 2026
$14,434 Vol.
36%
0123456789
%