Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

$2,673 Vol.

Khatt Ahmar 42%

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) 39%

Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath) 33.6%

National Dialogue Party (NDP) 34%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Rules

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$2,673
End Date
May 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 6, 2026, 9:50 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$2,673 Vol.

Market icon

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Khatt Ahmar 42%

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) 39%

Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath) 33.6%

National Dialogue Party (NDP) 34%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Khatt Ahmar

$102 Vol.

42%

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)

$102 Vol.

39%

Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)

$102 Vol.

34%

National Dialogue Party (NDP)

$102 Vol.

34%

Marada Movement (MM)

$102 Vol.

32%

National Liberal Party (NLP)

$102 Vol.

32%

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$353 Vol.

43%

Amal Movement (Amal)

$94 Vol.

31%

ReLebanon

$102 Vol.

29%

Taqaddom Party

$102 Vol.

27%

Union Party (UP)

$102 Vol.

26%

Dignity Movement (DM)

$102 Vol.

26%

Islamic Group (IG)

$87 Vol.

25%

Kataeb Party (Kataeb)

$97 Vol.

24%

Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)

$112 Vol.

23%

Independence Movement (IM)

$102 Vol.

23%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$102 Vol.

23%

Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)

$102 Vol.

22%

Watani Alliance (Watani)

$102 Vol.

21%

Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)

$102 Vol.

21%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$152 Vol.

18%

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)

$112 Vol.

12%

Mada Party (Mada)

$142 Vol.

22%

About

Volume
$2,673
End Date
May 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 6, 2026, 9:50 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.