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Elections·Middle East

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

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Elections·Middle East

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Lebanese Forces (LF) 14%

Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath) 7.8%

Hezbollah (Hezb) 2.5%

Amal Movement (Amal) 1.7%

Polymarket

$212,747 Vol.

Lebanese Forces (LF) 14%

Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath) 7.8%

Hezbollah (Hezb) 2.5%

Amal Movement (Amal) 1.7%

Polymarket

$212,747 Vol.

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$135,428 Vol.

14%

Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)

$2,967 Vol.

8%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$41,200 Vol.

2%

Amal Movement (Amal)

$26,786 Vol.

2%

Taqaddom Party

$0 Vol.

2%

ReLebanon

$1,764 Vol.

1%

Dignity Movement (DM)

$0 Vol.

1%

Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)

$0 Vol.

1%

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)

$4,602 Vol.

1%

Kataeb Party (Kataeb)

$0 Vol.

1%

Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)

$0 Vol.

1%

Independence Movement (IM)

$0 Vol.

1%

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Union Party (UP)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Marada Movement (MM)

$0 Vol.

<1%

National Liberal Party (NLP)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Watani Alliance (Watani)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Islamic Group (IG)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$0 Vol.

<1%

National Dialogue Party (NDP)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Mada Party (Mada)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 14% implied probability for most seats in Lebanon's parliamentary election, now postponed to 2028 after parliament's March 9 vote amid escalated Hezbollah-Israel clashes starting March 2, reflecting anti-Hezbollah momentum from the group's successive military setbacks and 79% public support for its disarmament in prior polls. LF differentiates via its staunch Christian base and alliances against Iran-backed factions, positioning it ahead in a fragmented confessional system where Hezbollah (3%) and Amal (2%) lag due to war damage. Ba'ath's 8% stems from trader bets on secular appeal in Sunni districts post-Assad Syria shifts. Consolidation could arise from Christian-Sunni coalitions, Hezbollah collapse, or snap election reversal amid ongoing hostilities.

Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 14% implied probability for most seats in Lebanon's parliamentary election, now postponed to 2028 after parliament's March 9 vote amid escalated Hezbollah-Israel clashes starting March 2, reflecting anti-Hezbollah momentum from the group's successive military setbacks and 79% public support for its disarmament in prior polls. LF differentiates via its staunch Christian base and alliances against Iran-backed factions, positioning it ahead in a fragmented confessional system where Hezbollah (3%) and Amal (2%) lag due to war damage. Ba'ath's 8% stems from trader bets on secular appeal in Sunni districts post-Assad Syria shifts. Consolidation could arise from Christian-Sunni coalitions, Hezbollah collapse, or snap election reversal amid ongoing hostilities.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 14% implied probability for most seats in Lebanon's parliamentary election, now postponed to 2028 after parliament's March 9 vote amid escalated Hezbollah-Israel clashes starting March 2, reflecting anti-Hezbollah momentum from the group's successive military setbacks and 79% public support for its disarmament in prior polls. LF differentiates via its staunch Christian base and alliances against Iran-backed factions, positioning it ahead in a fragmented confessional system where Hezbollah (3%) and Amal (2%) lag due to war damage. Ba'ath's 8% stems from trader bets on secular appeal in Sunni districts post-Assad Syria shifts. Consolidation could arise from Christian-Sunni coalitions, Hezbollah collapse, or snap election reversal amid ongoing hostilities.

Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 14% implied probability for most seats in Lebanon's parliamentary election, now postponed to 2028 after parliament's March 9 vote amid escalated Hezbollah-Israel clashes starting March 2, reflecting anti-Hezbollah momentum from the group's successive military setbacks and 79% public support for its disarmament in prior polls. LF differentiates via its staunch Christian base and alliances against Iran-backed factions, positioning it ahead in a fragmented confessional system where Hezbollah (3%) and Amal (2%) lag due to war damage. Ba'ath's 8% stems from trader bets on secular appeal in Sunni districts post-Assad Syria shifts. Consolidation could arise from Christian-Sunni coalitions, Hezbollah collapse, or snap election reversal amid ongoing hostilities.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lebanese Forces (LF)" at 14%, followed by "Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner" has generated $212.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner" is "Lebanese Forces (LF)" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.