Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Lebanese Forces (LF) 61%

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) 16%

Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) 9.4%

Amal Movement (Amal) 4.5%

Polymarket

$213,120 Vol.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$213,120
End Date
May 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Lebanese Forces (LF) 61%

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) 16%

Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) 9.4%

Amal Movement (Amal) 4.5%

Polymarket

$213,120 Vol.

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$37,655 Vol.

61%

Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)

$32,798 Vol.

16%

Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)

$19,870 Vol.

9%

Amal Movement (Amal)

$19,371 Vol.

4%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$35,457 Vol.

3%

Khatt Ahmar

$886 Vol.

2%

National Dialogue Party (NDP)

$38,341 Vol.

8%

Kataeb Party (Kataeb)

$384 Vol.

1%

Taqaddom Party

$1,132 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Social Democratic Party (Lana)

$969 Vol.

<1%

Marada Movement (MM)

$472 Vol.

<1%

Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)

$585 Vol.

<1%

Independence Movement (IM)

$528 Vol.

<1%

Mada Party (Mada)

$19,180 Vol.

<1%

Dignity Movement (DM)

$635 Vol.

<1%

ReLebanon

$535 Vol.

<1%

Watani Alliance (Watani)

$1,122 Vol.

<1%

Islamic Group (IG)

$518 Vol.

<1%

Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)

$448 Vol.

<1%

National Liberal Party (NLP)

$753 Vol.

<1%

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)

$463 Vol.

<1%

Union Party (UP)

$502 Vol.

<1%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$516 Vol.

<1%

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Beware of external links.