Civil Contract commands 83.5% implied probability on Polymarket to win Armenia's next parliamentary election under its proportional representation system, reflecting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's enduring incumbency advantage from the 2021 snap victory and strong showings in June's Yerevan municipal vote. Fragmented opposition—including Armenia Alliance at 12.5%, Bright Armenia at 3.6%, and minor parties like Prosperous Armenia—struggles with unified momentum amid internal divisions. Recent diplomatic advances, such as September border delimitation agreements with Azerbaijan, have solidified trader consensus in the ruling party's stability despite criticism from pro-Russian factions, with no snap election or no-confidence triggers in the past 30 days. The 2026 vote defines resolution barring parliamentary dissolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCivil Contract 84%
Armenia Alliance 13%
Bright Armenia 4.1%
I Have Honor Alliance 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Jun 7, 2026
Civil Contract
84%
Armenia Alliance
13%
Bright Armenia
4%
I Have Honor Alliance
2%
Armenian National Congress
<1%
Hanrapetutyun Party
<1%
Prosperous Armenia
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
<1%
Heritage
<1%
Civil Contract 84%
Armenia Alliance 13%
Bright Armenia 4.1%
I Have Honor Alliance 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Jun 7, 2026
Civil Contract
$0 Vol.
84%
Armenia Alliance
$0 Vol.
13%
Bright Armenia
$0 Vol.
4%
I Have Honor Alliance
$0 Vol.
2%
Armenian National Congress
$0 Vol.
<1%
Hanrapetutyun Party
$0 Vol.
<1%
Prosperous Armenia
$0 Vol.
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
$0 Vol.
<1%
Heritage
$0 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract commands 83.5% implied probability on Polymarket to win Armenia's next parliamentary election under its proportional representation system, reflecting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's enduring incumbency advantage from the 2021 snap victory and strong showings in June's Yerevan municipal vote. Fragmented opposition—including Armenia Alliance at 12.5%, Bright Armenia at 3.6%, and minor parties like Prosperous Armenia—struggles with unified momentum amid internal divisions. Recent diplomatic advances, such as September border delimitation agreements with Azerbaijan, have solidified trader consensus in the ruling party's stability despite criticism from pro-Russian factions, with no snap election or no-confidence triggers in the past 30 days. The 2026 vote defines resolution barring parliamentary dissolution.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Market Opened: Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jun 7, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract commands 83.5% implied probability on Polymarket to win Armenia's next parliamentary election under its proportional representation system, reflecting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's enduring incumbency advantage from the 2021 snap victory and strong showings in June's Yerevan municipal vote. Fragmented opposition—including Armenia Alliance at 12.5%, Bright Armenia at 3.6%, and minor parties like Prosperous Armenia—struggles with unified momentum amid internal divisions. Recent diplomatic advances, such as September border delimitation agreements with Azerbaijan, have solidified trader consensus in the ruling party's stability despite criticism from pro-Russian factions, with no snap election or no-confidence triggers in the past 30 days. The 2026 vote defines resolution barring parliamentary dissolution.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Volume
$0End Date
Jun 7, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Civil Contract commands 83.5% implied probability on Polymarket to win Armenia's next parliamentary election under its proportional representation system, reflecting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's enduring incumbency advantage from the 2021 snap victory and strong showings in June's Yerevan municipal vote. Fragmented opposition—including Armenia Alliance at 12.5%, Bright Armenia at 3.6%, and minor parties like Prosperous Armenia—struggles with unified momentum amid internal divisions. Recent diplomatic advances, such as September border delimitation agreements with Azerbaijan, have solidified trader consensus in the ruling party's stability despite criticism from pro-Russian factions, with no snap election or no-confidence triggers in the past 30 days. The 2026 vote defines resolution barring parliamentary dissolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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