Nawaf Salam’s appointment as Lebanon’s prime minister in February 2025 produced a transitional cabinet tasked with overseeing parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2026. Trader sentiment remains evenly balanced because Lebanon’s consociational system requires broad sectarian and factional agreement for any new government formation, leaving open the possibility that post-election coalition talks could retain Salam or install a successor. Recent diplomatic activity, including direct talks with Israel and economic reform discussions, has reinforced his position, yet persistent divisions over Hezbollah’s influence and judicial accountability continue to create openings for change. The 51 percent implied probability on his departure by year-end therefore reflects uncertainty over whether the upcoming vote will trigger a fresh mandate or extend the current arrangement amid ongoing stabilization efforts.