The Democratic incumbent Nellie Pou holds a narrow edge in the 2026 race for New Jersey’s 9th congressional district, where traders assign her party a 55.5 percent probability of victory. Pou’s 2024 win by fewer than two points in a seat that shifted rightward during that cycle established the current competitive baseline. With primaries scheduled for June 2, Pou faces no Democratic challengers while Republicans Tiffany Burress and Rosemary Pino compete for the nomination in a district rated Lean Democratic by major forecasters. Recent fundraising and organizational activity show both parties treating the seat as winnable, though no new polling or major events have altered the positioning since early spring. The modest Republican share reflects the district’s partisan voting index and historical turnout patterns in North Jersey suburbs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-09 House Election Winner
NJ-09 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
75%
Republican Party
24%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$475 Vol.
75%
Republican Party
$279 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic incumbent Nellie Pou holds a narrow edge in the 2026 race for New Jersey’s 9th congressional district, where traders assign her party a 55.5 percent probability of victory. Pou’s 2024 win by fewer than two points in a seat that shifted rightward during that cycle established the current competitive baseline. With primaries scheduled for June 2, Pou faces no Democratic challengers while Republicans Tiffany Burress and Rosemary Pino compete for the nomination in a district rated Lean Democratic by major forecasters. Recent fundraising and organizational activity show both parties treating the seat as winnable, though no new polling or major events have altered the positioning since early spring. The modest Republican share reflects the district’s partisan voting index and historical turnout patterns in North Jersey suburbs.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:26 PM ET
Volume
$754End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic incumbent Nellie Pou holds a narrow edge in the 2026 race for New Jersey’s 9th congressional district, where traders assign her party a 55.5 percent probability of victory. Pou’s 2024 win by fewer than two points in a seat that shifted rightward during that cycle established the current competitive baseline. With primaries scheduled for June 2, Pou faces no Democratic challengers while Republicans Tiffany Burress and Rosemary Pino compete for the nomination in a district rated Lean Democratic by major forecasters. Recent fundraising and organizational activity show both parties treating the seat as winnable, though no new polling or major events have altered the positioning since early spring. The modest Republican share reflects the district’s partisan voting index and historical turnout patterns in North Jersey suburbs.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$754End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic incumbent Nellie Pou holds a narrow edge in the 2026 race for New Jersey’s 9th congressional district, where traders assign her party a 55.5 percent probability of victory. Pou’s 2024 win by fewer than two points in a seat that shifted rightward during that cycle established the current competitive baseline. With primaries scheduled for June 2, Pou faces no Democratic challengers while Republicans Tiffany Burress and Rosemary Pino compete for the nomination in a district rated Lean Democratic by major forecasters. Recent fundraising and organizational activity show both parties treating the seat as winnable, though no new polling or major events have altered the positioning since early spring. The modest Republican share reflects the district’s partisan voting index and historical turnout patterns in North Jersey suburbs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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