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Aisha Wahab 94%

Carin Elam 1.8%

Matt Ortega 1.7%

Rakhi Israni Singh <1%

Polymarket
НОВЕ

Aisha Wahab 94%

Carin Elam 1.8%

Matt Ortega 1.7%

Rakhi Israni Singh <1%

Polymarket
НОВЕ

Aisha Wahab

$782 Обс.

94%

Melissa Hernandez

$440 Обс.

33%

Wendy Huang

$731 Обс.

1%

Carin Elam

$394 Обс.

2%

Matt Ortega

$519 Обс.

2%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$935 Обс.

1%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$448 Обс.

<1%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab’s commanding position in the CA-14 special election market stems from her decisive lead in the June 16 top-two primary, where she captured the largest share of votes in the heavily Democratic East Bay district vacated by Eric Swalwell. As a sitting state senator with party endorsement and strong name recognition, Wahab advanced to the August 18 runoff against likely challenger Melissa Hernandez. Traders assign her over 90 percent implied probability because the district’s partisan composition and her primary performance align with historical patterns for Democratic nominees in similar open seats. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a dramatic shift in runoff turnout, late-breaking campaign developments, or unforeseen changes in voter preferences between the two Democrats, though such factors remain low-probability based on current evidence.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Обсяг
$4,249
Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab’s commanding position in the CA-14 special election market stems from her decisive lead in the June 16 top-two primary, where she captured the largest share of votes in the heavily Democratic East Bay district vacated by Eric Swalwell. As a sitting state senator with party endorsement and strong name recognition, Wahab advanced to the August 18 runoff against likely challenger Melissa Hernandez. Traders assign her over 90 percent implied probability because the district’s partisan composition and her primary performance align with historical patterns for Democratic nominees in similar open seats. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a dramatic shift in runoff turnout, late-breaking campaign developments, or unforeseen changes in voter preferences between the two Democrats, though such factors remain low-probability based on current evidence.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Обсяг
$4,249
Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«CA-14 Special Election Winner?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 7 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Aisha Wahab» з 94%, далі «Melissa Hernandez» з 33%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«CA-14 Special Election Winner?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Apr 16, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «CA-14 Special Election Winner?», перегляньте 7 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «CA-14 Special Election Winner?» — «Aisha Wahab» з 94%. Наступний — «Melissa Hernandez» з 33%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «CA-14 Special Election Winner?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.