Skip to main content
icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politics·House Of Representatives

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politics·House Of Representatives

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 90%

Melissa Hernandez 26.1%

Rakhi Israni Singh 8.3%

Matt Ortega 3.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Aisha Wahab 90%

Melissa Hernandez 26.1%

Rakhi Israni Singh 8.3%

Matt Ortega 3.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Aisha Wahab

$290 Vol.

90%

Melissa Hernandez

$79 Vol.

26%

Wendy Huang

$77 Vol.

2%

Carin Elam

$122 Vol.

3%

Matt Ortega

$95 Vol.

4%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$220 Vol.

8%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$64 Vol.

3%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.State Sen. Aisha Wahab commands 80% trader consensus as the likely winner of the CA-14 special election, driven by a reported internal poll showing her substantial lead in the June 16 top-two primary, the East Bay Times endorsement on May 7 declaring her the strongest among nine candidates, and $94,000 in recent independent expenditures from labor-backed Committee for Working Families. Following Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation, Gov. Newsom scheduled the contest for this Democratic East Bay district, where Wahab's incumbency, progressive endorsements from groups like Indivisible East Bay and Our Revolution, and local name recognition position her to potentially exceed the 50% threshold for outright victory. Rakhi Israni Singh holds second at 14.5% with business credentials appealing to moderates, while others trail amid field fragmentation; top-two advance to the August 18 general.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$946
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.State Sen. Aisha Wahab commands 80% trader consensus as the likely winner of the CA-14 special election, driven by a reported internal poll showing her substantial lead in the June 16 top-two primary, the East Bay Times endorsement on May 7 declaring her the strongest among nine candidates, and $94,000 in recent independent expenditures from labor-backed Committee for Working Families. Following Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation, Gov. Newsom scheduled the contest for this Democratic East Bay district, where Wahab's incumbency, progressive endorsements from groups like Indivisible East Bay and Our Revolution, and local name recognition position her to potentially exceed the 50% threshold for outright victory. Rakhi Israni Singh holds second at 14.5% with business credentials appealing to moderates, while others trail amid field fragmentation; top-two advance to the August 18 general.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$946
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Related

icon for New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

64%
icon for Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

28%
icon for Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

36%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aisha Wahab" at 90%, followed by "Melissa Hernandez" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "CA-14 Special Election Winner?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" is "Aisha Wahab" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Melissa Hernandez" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.