California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, with voter registration favoring Democrats by roughly three-to-one and the seat delivering about 70 percent support for the prior incumbent in 2024. The open special election, triggered by Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation, features a crowded Democratic primary including state Senator Aisha Wahab, who holds the state party endorsement, and other contenders such as Melissa Hernandez, against a smaller Republican field. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A Democratic nominee is expected to advance through the June 16 primary and prevail in the August general, though outcomes could shift if a late scandal emerges among leading Democrats, Republican turnout surges unexpectedly, or turnout patterns deviate sharply from historical norms.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-14 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-14 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$26,831 Объем
$26,831 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
6%
$26,831 Объем
$26,831 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$8,619 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$18,211 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, with voter registration favoring Democrats by roughly three-to-one and the seat delivering about 70 percent support for the prior incumbent in 2024. The open special election, triggered by Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation, features a crowded Democratic primary including state Senator Aisha Wahab, who holds the state party endorsement, and other contenders such as Melissa Hernandez, against a smaller Republican field. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A Democratic nominee is expected to advance through the June 16 primary and prevail in the August general, though outcomes could shift if a late scandal emerges among leading Democrats, Republican turnout surges unexpectedly, or turnout patterns deviate sharply from historical norms.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$26,831Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, with voter registration favoring Democrats by roughly three-to-one and the seat delivering about 70 percent support for the prior incumbent in 2024. The open special election, triggered by Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation, features a crowded Democratic primary including state Senator Aisha Wahab, who holds the state party endorsement, and other contenders such as Melissa Hernandez, against a smaller Republican field. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A Democratic nominee is expected to advance through the June 16 primary and prevail in the August general, though outcomes could shift if a late scandal emerges among leading Democrats, Republican turnout surges unexpectedly, or turnout patterns deviate sharply from historical norms.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$26,831Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, with voter registration favoring Democrats by roughly three-to-one and the seat delivering about 70 percent support for the prior incumbent in 2024. The open special election, triggered by Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation, features a crowded Democratic primary including state Senator Aisha Wahab, who holds the state party endorsement, and other contenders such as Melissa Hernandez, against a smaller Republican field. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A Democratic nominee is expected to advance through the June 16 primary and prevail in the August general, though outcomes could shift if a late scandal emerges among leading Democrats, Republican turnout surges unexpectedly, or turnout patterns deviate sharply from historical norms.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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