The strong Democratic lean of California's 14th congressional district, reflected in its D+19 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic outcome. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation triggered a special election won by state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who also advanced from the June 2 top-two primary alongside former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez. Both finalists are Democrats, and Republican candidates received under 30 percent combined in the primary, leaving no GOP nominee on the November 3 general ballot. Historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition reinforce the implied probability. A Democratic hold could face disruption only through highly unusual developments such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a major unforeseen event altering turnout or eligibility before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-14 House Election Winner
CA-14 House Election Winner
$35,762 Vol.
$35,762 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
<1%
$35,762 Vol.
$35,762 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,006 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$21,756 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 14th congressional district, reflected in its D+19 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic outcome. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation triggered a special election won by state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who also advanced from the June 2 top-two primary alongside former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez. Both finalists are Democrats, and Republican candidates received under 30 percent combined in the primary, leaving no GOP nominee on the November 3 general ballot. Historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition reinforce the implied probability. A Democratic hold could face disruption only through highly unusual developments such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a major unforeseen event altering turnout or eligibility before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$35,762End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 14th congressional district, reflected in its D+19 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic outcome. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation triggered a special election won by state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who also advanced from the June 2 top-two primary alongside former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez. Both finalists are Democrats, and Republican candidates received under 30 percent combined in the primary, leaving no GOP nominee on the November 3 general ballot. Historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition reinforce the implied probability. A Democratic hold could face disruption only through highly unusual developments such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a major unforeseen event altering turnout or eligibility before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,762End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of California's 14th congressional district, reflected in its D+19 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic outcome. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation triggered a special election won by state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who also advanced from the June 2 top-two primary alongside former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez. Both finalists are Democrats, and Republican candidates received under 30 percent combined in the primary, leaving no GOP nominee on the November 3 general ballot. Historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition reinforce the implied probability. A Democratic hold could face disruption only through highly unusual developments such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a major unforeseen event altering turnout or eligibility before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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