The 14th Congressional District's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19, underpins the market's 97.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. California's top-two primary system advanced state Sen. Aisha Wahab and former Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez from the June 2026 ballot, leaving Republican candidates far behind with roughly one-quarter of the combined primary vote. Wahab's subsequent special election victory in August further consolidated support ahead of the November general. In this safely Democratic Bay Area seat, the absence of a competitive Republican general election candidate limits meaningful shifts, though an unforeseen late development affecting both Democratic contenders could theoretically alter the outcome before voters decide.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-14 House Election Winner
CA-14 House Election Winner
$35,762 Vol.
$35,762 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
<1%
$35,762 Vol.
$35,762 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,006 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$21,756 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The 14th Congressional District's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19, underpins the market's 97.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. California's top-two primary system advanced state Sen. Aisha Wahab and former Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez from the June 2026 ballot, leaving Republican candidates far behind with roughly one-quarter of the combined primary vote. Wahab's subsequent special election victory in August further consolidated support ahead of the November general. In this safely Democratic Bay Area seat, the absence of a competitive Republican general election candidate limits meaningful shifts, though an unforeseen late development affecting both Democratic contenders could theoretically alter the outcome before voters decide.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$35,762End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The 14th Congressional District's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19, underpins the market's 97.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. California's top-two primary system advanced state Sen. Aisha Wahab and former Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez from the June 2026 ballot, leaving Republican candidates far behind with roughly one-quarter of the combined primary vote. Wahab's subsequent special election victory in August further consolidated support ahead of the November general. In this safely Democratic Bay Area seat, the absence of a competitive Republican general election candidate limits meaningful shifts, though an unforeseen late development affecting both Democratic contenders could theoretically alter the outcome before voters decide.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,762End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...The 14th Congressional District's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19, underpins the market's 97.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. California's top-two primary system advanced state Sen. Aisha Wahab and former Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez from the June 2026 ballot, leaving Republican candidates far behind with roughly one-quarter of the combined primary vote. Wahab's subsequent special election victory in August further consolidated support ahead of the November general. In this safely Democratic Bay Area seat, the absence of a competitive Republican general election candidate limits meaningful shifts, though an unforeseen late development affecting both Democratic contenders could theoretically alter the outcome before voters decide.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions