Washington’s 9th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+22, reinforced by longtime incumbent Adam Smith’s 29-year tenure since 1997. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the August 4, 2026 top-two primary and November 3 general election, where Republican challengers remain limited and underfunded. Trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic outcome aligns with this structural advantage and historical voting patterns in the district covering southern Seattle suburbs. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unexpected primary upset by a high-profile challenger or a late major scandal affecting the incumbent, though no such developments have emerged in recent months.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWA-09 House Election Winner
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington’s 9th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+22, reinforced by longtime incumbent Adam Smith’s 29-year tenure since 1997. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the August 4, 2026 top-two primary and November 3 general election, where Republican challengers remain limited and underfunded. Trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic outcome aligns with this structural advantage and historical voting patterns in the district covering southern Seattle suburbs. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unexpected primary upset by a high-profile challenger or a late major scandal affecting the incumbent, though no such developments have emerged in recent months.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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