Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95.7% implied probability to win the most seats or governorships in the June 2026 local elections, driven by President Yoon Suk Yeol's People Power Party (PPP) cratering amid the December 2024 martial law fiasco—declared and rescinded within hours after National Assembly opposition—plunging Yoon's approval below 20% and sparking sustained protests. DP's commanding National Assembly majority from the April 2024 legislative landslide, coupled with recent failed impeachment bids against Yoon highlighting PPP disarray, solidifies this positioning, as polls project DP dominance in metropolitan mayors and provincial races. Upsets could arise from a PPP leadership reboot post-Yoon resignation or impeachment, a major Democratic scandal involving leader Lee Jae-myung, or unforeseen economic recovery boosting incumbents, though structural opposition strength and incumbency in many local posts reinforce the status quo.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоМестные выборы в Южной Корее в 2026 году: победитель партии
Местные выборы в Южной Корее в 2026 году: победитель партии
Демократическая партия Кореи (ДПК) 95.6%
Партия «Сила народа» (PPP) 3.9%
Прогрессивная партия (ПП) <1%
Партия реформ (ПР) <1%
$1,984,730 Объем
$1,984,730 Объем
Jun 3, 2026
Демократическая партия Кореи (ДПК)
96%
Партия «Сила народа» (PPP)
4%
Прогрессивная партия (ПП)
<1%
Партия реформ (ПР)
<1%
Партия восстановления Кореи (RKP)
<1%
Демократическая партия Кореи (ДПК) 95.6%
Партия «Сила народа» (PPP) 3.9%
Прогрессивная партия (ПП) <1%
Партия реформ (ПР) <1%
$1,984,730 Объем
$1,984,730 Объем
Jun 3, 2026
Демократическая партия Кореи (ДПК)
$430,763 Объем
96%
Партия «Сила народа» (PPP)
$923,479 Объем
4%
Прогрессивная партия (ПП)
$278,438 Объем
<1%
Партия реформ (ПР)
$126,302 Объем
<1%
Партия восстановления Кореи (RKP)
$225,748 Объем
<1%
South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces:
Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong
Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95.7% implied probability to win the most seats or governorships in the June 2026 local elections, driven by President Yoon Suk Yeol's People Power Party (PPP) cratering amid the December 2024 martial law fiasco—declared and rescinded within hours after National Assembly opposition—plunging Yoon's approval below 20% and sparking sustained protests. DP's commanding National Assembly majority from the April 2024 legislative landslide, coupled with recent failed impeachment bids against Yoon highlighting PPP disarray, solidifies this positioning, as polls project DP dominance in metropolitan mayors and provincial races. Upsets could arise from a PPP leadership reboot post-Yoon resignation or impeachment, a major Democratic scandal involving leader Lee Jae-myung, or unforeseen economic recovery boosting incumbents, though structural opposition strength and incumbency in many local posts reinforce the status quo.
South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces:
Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong
Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces:
Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong
Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Объем
$1,984,730Дата окончания
Jun 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces:
Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong
Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95.7% implied probability to win the most seats or governorships in the June 2026 local elections, driven by President Yoon Suk Yeol's People Power Party (PPP) cratering amid the December 2024 martial law fiasco—declared and rescinded within hours after National Assembly opposition—plunging Yoon's approval below 20% and sparking sustained protests. DP's commanding National Assembly majority from the April 2024 legislative landslide, coupled with recent failed impeachment bids against Yoon highlighting PPP disarray, solidifies this positioning, as polls project DP dominance in metropolitan mayors and provincial races. Upsets could arise from a PPP leadership reboot post-Yoon resignation or impeachment, a major Democratic scandal involving leader Lee Jae-myung, or unforeseen economic recovery boosting incumbents, though structural opposition strength and incumbency in many local posts reinforce the status quo.
South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces:
Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong
Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces:
Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong
Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon.
A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Объем
$1,984,730Дата окончания
Jun 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95.7% implied probability to win the most seats or governorships in the June 2026 local elections, driven by President Yoon Suk Yeol's People Power Party (PPP) cratering amid the December 2024 martial law fiasco—declared and rescinded within hours after National Assembly opposition—plunging Yoon's approval below 20% and sparking sustained protests. DP's commanding National Assembly majority from the April 2024 legislative landslide, coupled with recent failed impeachment bids against Yoon highlighting PPP disarray, solidifies this positioning, as polls project DP dominance in metropolitan mayors and provincial races. Upsets could arise from a PPP leadership reboot post-Yoon resignation or impeachment, a major Democratic scandal involving leader Lee Jae-myung, or unforeseen economic recovery boosting incumbents, though structural opposition strength and incumbency in many local posts reinforce the status quo.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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