Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding lead in California's 13th congressional district race, reflected in the 94.3% trader consensus for his victory. Key drivers include his primary performance securing 42% of the vote in June 2026, a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million compared to challenger Kevin Lincoln's roughly $2.2 million, and redistricting under Proposition 50 that strengthened the district's Democratic lean. Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor who advanced from the primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat that favored Democrats in recent presidential voting. Potential shifts could stem from unusually low turnout, national political swings, or late developments in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$20,585 Vol.
$20,585 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Adam Gray (D)
94%
Kevin Lincoln (R)
4%
$20,585 Vol.
$20,585 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Adam Gray (D)
$11,674 Vol.
94%
Kevin Lincoln (R)
$8,911 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding lead in California's 13th congressional district race, reflected in the 94.3% trader consensus for his victory. Key drivers include his primary performance securing 42% of the vote in June 2026, a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million compared to challenger Kevin Lincoln's roughly $2.2 million, and redistricting under Proposition 50 that strengthened the district's Democratic lean. Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor who advanced from the primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat that favored Democrats in recent presidential voting. Potential shifts could stem from unusually low turnout, national political swings, or late developments in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Volume
$20,585End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding lead in California's 13th congressional district race, reflected in the 94.3% trader consensus for his victory. Key drivers include his primary performance securing 42% of the vote in June 2026, a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million compared to challenger Kevin Lincoln's roughly $2.2 million, and redistricting under Proposition 50 that strengthened the district's Democratic lean. Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor who advanced from the primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat that favored Democrats in recent presidential voting. Potential shifts could stem from unusually low turnout, national political swings, or late developments in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,585End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding lead in California's 13th congressional district race, reflected in the 94.3% trader consensus for his victory. Key drivers include his primary performance securing 42% of the vote in June 2026, a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million compared to challenger Kevin Lincoln's roughly $2.2 million, and redistricting under Proposition 50 that strengthened the district's Democratic lean. Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor who advanced from the primary, faces structural headwinds in a seat that favored Democrats in recent presidential voting. Potential shifts could stem from unusually low turnout, national political swings, or late developments in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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