Jacqui Irwin holds a commanding position in the California 26th congressional district race due to the seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+9 and recent presidential results favoring Democrats by double digits. The open seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Julia Brownley, saw Irwin advance from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 41% of the vote against Republican Sam Gallucci's 21%, aided by superior fundraising, endorsements from Brownley and U.S. senators, and the state's mid-decade redistricting that strengthened Democratic-leaning districts. Forecasters rate the November general election as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on Irwin's high win probability. A national Republican surge or unexpectedly low Democratic turnout could narrow margins, though structural factors make such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-26 House Election Winner
CA-26 House Election Winner
$32,175 Vol.
$32,175 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Jacqui Irwin (D)
95%
Sam Gallucci (R)
6%
$32,175 Vol.
$32,175 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Jacqui Irwin (D)
$16,426 Vol.
95%
Sam Gallucci (R)
$15,749 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jacqui Irwin holds a commanding position in the California 26th congressional district race due to the seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+9 and recent presidential results favoring Democrats by double digits. The open seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Julia Brownley, saw Irwin advance from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 41% of the vote against Republican Sam Gallucci's 21%, aided by superior fundraising, endorsements from Brownley and U.S. senators, and the state's mid-decade redistricting that strengthened Democratic-leaning districts. Forecasters rate the November general election as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on Irwin's high win probability. A national Republican surge or unexpectedly low Democratic turnout could narrow margins, though structural factors make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$32,175End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jacqui Irwin holds a commanding position in the California 26th congressional district race due to the seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+9 and recent presidential results favoring Democrats by double digits. The open seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Julia Brownley, saw Irwin advance from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 41% of the vote against Republican Sam Gallucci's 21%, aided by superior fundraising, endorsements from Brownley and U.S. senators, and the state's mid-decade redistricting that strengthened Democratic-leaning districts. Forecasters rate the November general election as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on Irwin's high win probability. A national Republican surge or unexpectedly low Democratic turnout could narrow margins, though structural factors make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,175End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jacqui Irwin holds a commanding position in the California 26th congressional district race due to the seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+9 and recent presidential results favoring Democrats by double digits. The open seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Julia Brownley, saw Irwin advance from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 41% of the vote against Republican Sam Gallucci's 21%, aided by superior fundraising, endorsements from Brownley and U.S. senators, and the state's mid-decade redistricting that strengthened Democratic-leaning districts. Forecasters rate the November general election as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on Irwin's high win probability. A national Republican surge or unexpectedly low Democratic turnout could narrow margins, though structural factors make such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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