California's 26th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following the June 2026 top-two primary, where state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin advanced comfortably alongside Republican Sam Gallucci for the November general election. The open seat, created by the retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Julia Brownley, features a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly nine points, consistent with historical results in this Ventura County-based district. Nonpartisan election forecasters rate the contest as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting Irwin's established name recognition from her assembly tenure and the limited viability of Republican challengers in the area. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the district's underlying electoral math. A significant national Republican surge, unforeseen candidate-specific issues, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome entrenched local advantages to threaten the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-26 House Election Winner
CA-26 House Election Winner
$29,475 Vol.
$29,475 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$29,475 Vol.
$29,475 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$15,856 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$13,619 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 26th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following the June 2026 top-two primary, where state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin advanced comfortably alongside Republican Sam Gallucci for the November general election. The open seat, created by the retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Julia Brownley, features a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly nine points, consistent with historical results in this Ventura County-based district. Nonpartisan election forecasters rate the contest as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting Irwin's established name recognition from her assembly tenure and the limited viability of Republican challengers in the area. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the district's underlying electoral math. A significant national Republican surge, unforeseen candidate-specific issues, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome entrenched local advantages to threaten the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$29,475End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 26th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following the June 2026 top-two primary, where state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin advanced comfortably alongside Republican Sam Gallucci for the November general election. The open seat, created by the retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Julia Brownley, features a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly nine points, consistent with historical results in this Ventura County-based district. Nonpartisan election forecasters rate the contest as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting Irwin's established name recognition from her assembly tenure and the limited viability of Republican challengers in the area. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the district's underlying electoral math. A significant national Republican surge, unforeseen candidate-specific issues, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome entrenched local advantages to threaten the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,475End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 26th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following the June 2026 top-two primary, where state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin advanced comfortably alongside Republican Sam Gallucci for the November general election. The open seat, created by the retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Julia Brownley, features a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly nine points, consistent with historical results in this Ventura County-based district. Nonpartisan election forecasters rate the contest as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting Irwin's established name recognition from her assembly tenure and the limited viability of Republican challengers in the area. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the district's underlying electoral math. A significant national Republican surge, unforeseen candidate-specific issues, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would need to overcome entrenched local advantages to threaten the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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