Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Incumbent Rep. Julia Brownley's retirement opened the Ventura County-based seat, but her endorsement of state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin bolsters Democratic prospects ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where multiple Democrats—including environmental advocate Chris Espinosa, recently endorsed by national green groups—are competing against underfunded Republicans like pastor Samuel Gallucci. No recent polling exists, but historical margins above 54% for Democrats sustain the lopsided odds. A Republican challenge would require topping the primary, a national midterm wave, or a Democratic scandal to shift dynamics before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-26 House Election Winner
CA-26 House Election Winner
$18,944 Vol.
$18,944 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$18,944 Vol.
$18,944 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$9,608 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$9,335 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Incumbent Rep. Julia Brownley's retirement opened the Ventura County-based seat, but her endorsement of state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin bolsters Democratic prospects ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where multiple Democrats—including environmental advocate Chris Espinosa, recently endorsed by national green groups—are competing against underfunded Republicans like pastor Samuel Gallucci. No recent polling exists, but historical margins above 54% for Democrats sustain the lopsided odds. A Republican challenge would require topping the primary, a national midterm wave, or a Democratic scandal to shift dynamics before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$18,944End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Incumbent Rep. Julia Brownley's retirement opened the Ventura County-based seat, but her endorsement of state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin bolsters Democratic prospects ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where multiple Democrats—including environmental advocate Chris Espinosa, recently endorsed by national green groups—are competing against underfunded Republicans like pastor Samuel Gallucci. No recent polling exists, but historical margins above 54% for Democrats sustain the lopsided odds. A Republican challenge would require topping the primary, a national midterm wave, or a Democratic scandal to shift dynamics before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,944End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to win California's 26th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong D+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe/Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Incumbent Rep. Julia Brownley's retirement opened the Ventura County-based seat, but her endorsement of state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin bolsters Democratic prospects ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where multiple Democrats—including environmental advocate Chris Espinosa, recently endorsed by national green groups—are competing against underfunded Republicans like pastor Samuel Gallucci. No recent polling exists, but historical margins above 54% for Democrats sustain the lopsided odds. A Republican challenge would require topping the primary, a national midterm wave, or a Democratic scandal to shift dynamics before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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