Incumbent Republican Mike Turner holds a strong position in Ohio’s 10th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting the district’s Republican lean after recent redistricting and his consistent overperformance relative to the national environment. Turner, who won reelection in 2024 by 18 points and serves on key defense and intelligence committees relevant to the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base economy, faces Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker, an Air Force veteran and nurse practitioner who won her May primary. July 2026 head-to-head polling showed Turner ahead by 5 to 7 points, with the race rated Likely or Safe Republican by forecasters. Trader consensus at 82.5 percent for Turner versus 17 percent for Knickerbocker aligns with these structural and polling signals, though the outcome remains sensitive to broader midterm turnout and any late shifts in the national environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOH-10 House Election Winner
OH-10 House Election Winner
$47,550 Vol.
$47,550 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Turner (R)
83%
Kristina Knickerbocker (D)
17%
$47,550 Vol.
$47,550 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Turner (R)
$25,453 Vol.
83%
Kristina Knickerbocker (D)
$22,098 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Turner holds a strong position in Ohio’s 10th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting the district’s Republican lean after recent redistricting and his consistent overperformance relative to the national environment. Turner, who won reelection in 2024 by 18 points and serves on key defense and intelligence committees relevant to the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base economy, faces Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker, an Air Force veteran and nurse practitioner who won her May primary. July 2026 head-to-head polling showed Turner ahead by 5 to 7 points, with the race rated Likely or Safe Republican by forecasters. Trader consensus at 82.5 percent for Turner versus 17 percent for Knickerbocker aligns with these structural and polling signals, though the outcome remains sensitive to broader midterm turnout and any late shifts in the national environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$47,550End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Turner holds a strong position in Ohio’s 10th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting the district’s Republican lean after recent redistricting and his consistent overperformance relative to the national environment. Turner, who won reelection in 2024 by 18 points and serves on key defense and intelligence committees relevant to the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base economy, faces Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker, an Air Force veteran and nurse practitioner who won her May primary. July 2026 head-to-head polling showed Turner ahead by 5 to 7 points, with the race rated Likely or Safe Republican by forecasters. Trader consensus at 82.5 percent for Turner versus 17 percent for Knickerbocker aligns with these structural and polling signals, though the outcome remains sensitive to broader midterm turnout and any late shifts in the national environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,550End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Turner holds a strong position in Ohio’s 10th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting the district’s Republican lean after recent redistricting and his consistent overperformance relative to the national environment. Turner, who won reelection in 2024 by 18 points and serves on key defense and intelligence committees relevant to the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base economy, faces Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker, an Air Force veteran and nurse practitioner who won her May primary. July 2026 head-to-head polling showed Turner ahead by 5 to 7 points, with the race rated Likely or Safe Republican by forecasters. Trader consensus at 82.5 percent for Turner versus 17 percent for Knickerbocker aligns with these structural and polling signals, though the outcome remains sensitive to broader midterm turnout and any late shifts in the national environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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