Incumbent Rep. Scott Fitzgerald's reelection bid in the solidly Republican WI-05 district, rated R+11 by Cook Partisan Voting Index and Solid R by Cook Political Report, drives trader consensus heavily favoring Republicans at 87.5% implied probability. Fitzgerald secured 64% in 2024 despite national headwinds, bolstering his incumbency advantage in this Milwaukee-suburban stronghold untouched by Democrats since the 1990s. Democrats field Andrew Beck and rematch challenger Ben Steinhoff in their August 11 primary, but neither has shown fundraising or polling traction to overcome the district's partisan math. No notable developments in the past 30 days have emerged; odds reflect structural barriers barring major shifts absent a national wave or scandal before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-05 House Election Winner
WI-05 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,355 Vol.
88%
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Scott Fitzgerald's reelection bid in the solidly Republican WI-05 district, rated R+11 by Cook Partisan Voting Index and Solid R by Cook Political Report, drives trader consensus heavily favoring Republicans at 87.5% implied probability. Fitzgerald secured 64% in 2024 despite national headwinds, bolstering his incumbency advantage in this Milwaukee-suburban stronghold untouched by Democrats since the 1990s. Democrats field Andrew Beck and rematch challenger Ben Steinhoff in their August 11 primary, but neither has shown fundraising or polling traction to overcome the district's partisan math. No notable developments in the past 30 days have emerged; odds reflect structural barriers barring major shifts absent a national wave or scandal before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$6,355End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Scott Fitzgerald's reelection bid in the solidly Republican WI-05 district, rated R+11 by Cook Partisan Voting Index and Solid R by Cook Political Report, drives trader consensus heavily favoring Republicans at 87.5% implied probability. Fitzgerald secured 64% in 2024 despite national headwinds, bolstering his incumbency advantage in this Milwaukee-suburban stronghold untouched by Democrats since the 1990s. Democrats field Andrew Beck and rematch challenger Ben Steinhoff in their August 11 primary, but neither has shown fundraising or polling traction to overcome the district's partisan math. No notable developments in the past 30 days have emerged; odds reflect structural barriers barring major shifts absent a national wave or scandal before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,355End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Scott Fitzgerald's reelection bid in the solidly Republican WI-05 district, rated R+11 by Cook Partisan Voting Index and Solid R by Cook Political Report, drives trader consensus heavily favoring Republicans at 87.5% implied probability. Fitzgerald secured 64% in 2024 despite national headwinds, bolstering his incumbency advantage in this Milwaukee-suburban stronghold untouched by Democrats since the 1990s. Democrats field Andrew Beck and rematch challenger Ben Steinhoff in their August 11 primary, but neither has shown fundraising or polling traction to overcome the district's partisan math. No notable developments in the past 30 days have emerged; odds reflect structural barriers barring major shifts absent a national wave or scandal before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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