The WI-05 House election market reflects Scott Fitzgerald's entrenched position as the Republican incumbent in a district with longstanding partisan leanings that favor GOP candidates in general elections. Traders have assigned minimal implied probability to Democratic challenger Andrew Beck, consistent with the seat's voting history and limited competitive dynamics observed in recent cycles. Key factors sustaining this consensus include Fitzgerald's name recognition, institutional support within the party, and the absence of major primary or general-election disruptions to date. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late-cycle national swings in turnout, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or significant campaign finance developments, though none have yet altered the current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-05 House Election Winner
WI-05 House Election Winner
$59,331 Vol.
$59,331 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Scott Fitzgerald (R)
96%
Andrew Beck (D)
4%
$59,331 Vol.
$59,331 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Scott Fitzgerald (R)
$32,629 Vol.
96%
Andrew Beck (D)
$26,702 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The WI-05 House election market reflects Scott Fitzgerald's entrenched position as the Republican incumbent in a district with longstanding partisan leanings that favor GOP candidates in general elections. Traders have assigned minimal implied probability to Democratic challenger Andrew Beck, consistent with the seat's voting history and limited competitive dynamics observed in recent cycles. Key factors sustaining this consensus include Fitzgerald's name recognition, institutional support within the party, and the absence of major primary or general-election disruptions to date. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late-cycle national swings in turnout, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or significant campaign finance developments, though none have yet altered the current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$59,331End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The WI-05 House election market reflects Scott Fitzgerald's entrenched position as the Republican incumbent in a district with longstanding partisan leanings that favor GOP candidates in general elections. Traders have assigned minimal implied probability to Democratic challenger Andrew Beck, consistent with the seat's voting history and limited competitive dynamics observed in recent cycles. Key factors sustaining this consensus include Fitzgerald's name recognition, institutional support within the party, and the absence of major primary or general-election disruptions to date. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late-cycle national swings in turnout, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or significant campaign finance developments, though none have yet altered the current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$59,331End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The WI-05 House election market reflects Scott Fitzgerald's entrenched position as the Republican incumbent in a district with longstanding partisan leanings that favor GOP candidates in general elections. Traders have assigned minimal implied probability to Democratic challenger Andrew Beck, consistent with the seat's voting history and limited competitive dynamics observed in recent cycles. Key factors sustaining this consensus include Fitzgerald's name recognition, institutional support within the party, and the absence of major primary or general-election disruptions to date. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late-cycle national swings in turnout, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or significant campaign finance developments, though none have yet altered the current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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