Florida’s 19th Congressional District remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat, with the open position created by incumbent Byron Donalds’ gubernatorial bid. Jim Schwartzel secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 29.1 percent in a crowded field that included several former members of Congress, aided by endorsements from House leadership and his local business and media background. Victor Arias advanced as the Democratic nominee after winning his primary with 45.5 percent but faces limited fundraising and name recognition in a district where Republican presidential candidates have posted large margins. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader pricing that treats a Democratic upset as low-probability absent a major late-cycle development such as a candidate withdrawal or significant scandal. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for unforeseen shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-19 House Election Winner
FL-19 House Election Winner
$20,955 Vol.
$20,955 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jim Schwartzel (R)
95%
Victor Arias (D)
6%
$20,955 Vol.
$20,955 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jim Schwartzel (R)
$6,261 Vol.
95%
Victor Arias (D)
$14,694 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida’s 19th Congressional District remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat, with the open position created by incumbent Byron Donalds’ gubernatorial bid. Jim Schwartzel secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 29.1 percent in a crowded field that included several former members of Congress, aided by endorsements from House leadership and his local business and media background. Victor Arias advanced as the Democratic nominee after winning his primary with 45.5 percent but faces limited fundraising and name recognition in a district where Republican presidential candidates have posted large margins. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader pricing that treats a Democratic upset as low-probability absent a major late-cycle development such as a candidate withdrawal or significant scandal. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for unforeseen shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$20,955End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida’s 19th Congressional District remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat, with the open position created by incumbent Byron Donalds’ gubernatorial bid. Jim Schwartzel secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 29.1 percent in a crowded field that included several former members of Congress, aided by endorsements from House leadership and his local business and media background. Victor Arias advanced as the Democratic nominee after winning his primary with 45.5 percent but faces limited fundraising and name recognition in a district where Republican presidential candidates have posted large margins. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader pricing that treats a Democratic upset as low-probability absent a major late-cycle development such as a candidate withdrawal or significant scandal. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for unforeseen shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,955End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Florida’s 19th Congressional District remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat, with the open position created by incumbent Byron Donalds’ gubernatorial bid. Jim Schwartzel secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 29.1 percent in a crowded field that included several former members of Congress, aided by endorsements from House leadership and his local business and media background. Victor Arias advanced as the Democratic nominee after winning his primary with 45.5 percent but faces limited fundraising and name recognition in a district where Republican presidential candidates have posted large margins. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader pricing that treats a Democratic upset as low-probability absent a major late-cycle development such as a candidate withdrawal or significant scandal. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for unforeseen shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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