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Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

icon for Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
Mundo·Austrália

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

Anthony Albanese 41%

Angus Taylor 20%

Pauline Hanson 16%

Robbie Katter 1.1%

Polymarket

$10,441 Vol.

Anthony Albanese 41%

Angus Taylor 20%

Pauline Hanson 16%

Robbie Katter 1.1%

Polymarket

$10,441 Vol.

icon for Anthony Albanese

Anthony Albanese

$1,013 Vol.

41%

icon for Angus Taylor

Angus Taylor

$1,929 Vol.

20%

icon for Pauline Hanson

Pauline Hanson

$6,757 Vol.

16%

icon for Robbie Katter

Robbie Katter

$334 Vol.

1%

icon for Larissa Waters

Larissa Waters

$407 Vol.

<1%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling reveals a highly fragmented Australian electorate more than two years before the next federal election, with One Nation surging to around 29-30% primary support while Labor and the Liberal-National Coalition trail significantly. This volatility, combined with the long timeline until the vote must be held by May 2028, sustains broad uncertainty over which party or coalition will form government and who will lead it. Anthony Albanese remains Labor leader and incumbent Prime Minister, yet internal pressures and preference flows could open paths for alternatives including Coalition figures or minor-party influencers such as Pauline Hanson. The implied probability spread across numerous candidates reflects trader assessment of multiple plausible scenarios, including potential leadership transitions, crossbench influence in a hung parliament, or further realignment driven by cost-of-living concerns and regional voting shifts. Scheduled state elections and ongoing parliamentary sessions may provide early signals capable of separating the field.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,441
Data de Término
23 set 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jun 10, 2026, 1:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling reveals a highly fragmented Australian electorate more than two years before the next federal election, with One Nation surging to around 29-30% primary support while Labor and the Liberal-National Coalition trail significantly. This volatility, combined with the long timeline until the vote must be held by May 2028, sustains broad uncertainty over which party or coalition will form government and who will lead it. Anthony Albanese remains Labor leader and incumbent Prime Minister, yet internal pressures and preference flows could open paths for alternatives including Coalition figures or minor-party influencers such as Pauline Hanson. The implied probability spread across numerous candidates reflects trader assessment of multiple plausible scenarios, including potential leadership transitions, crossbench influence in a hung parliament, or further realignment driven by cost-of-living concerns and regional voting shifts. Scheduled state elections and ongoing parliamentary sessions may provide early signals capable of separating the field.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,441
Data de Término
23 set 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jun 10, 2026, 1:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthony Albanese" at 41%, followed by "Angus Taylor" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?" has generated $10.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 10, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?" is "Anthony Albanese" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Angus Taylor" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.