Incumbent Democrat Angie Craig holds a steady lead in MN-02 polling averages, around 8 points ahead of Republican challenger Joe Teirab, driving trader consensus to 58.5% for the Democratic Party amid the district's suburban Democratic lean and her fundraising advantage exceeding $3 million. Recent developments include a late September Star Tribune/MPR News poll showing Craig at 50% to Teirab's 42%, bolstered by strong independent support and national generic ballot trends favoring Democrats slightly. Teirab has gained traction with endorsements from local GOP figures and focus on economic issues, narrowing the gap from summer surveys. With early voting underway ahead of the November 5 election, turnout among moderates in this battleground district remains the key uncertainty reflected in the competitive pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMN-02 House Election Winner
MN-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
41%
Democratic Party
58%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
41%
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
58%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Angie Craig holds a steady lead in MN-02 polling averages, around 8 points ahead of Republican challenger Joe Teirab, driving trader consensus to 58.5% for the Democratic Party amid the district's suburban Democratic lean and her fundraising advantage exceeding $3 million. Recent developments include a late September Star Tribune/MPR News poll showing Craig at 50% to Teirab's 42%, bolstered by strong independent support and national generic ballot trends favoring Democrats slightly. Teirab has gained traction with endorsements from local GOP figures and focus on economic issues, narrowing the gap from summer surveys. With early voting underway ahead of the November 5 election, turnout among moderates in this battleground district remains the key uncertainty reflected in the competitive pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Angie Craig holds a steady lead in MN-02 polling averages, around 8 points ahead of Republican challenger Joe Teirab, driving trader consensus to 58.5% for the Democratic Party amid the district's suburban Democratic lean and her fundraising advantage exceeding $3 million. Recent developments include a late September Star Tribune/MPR News poll showing Craig at 50% to Teirab's 42%, bolstered by strong independent support and national generic ballot trends favoring Democrats slightly. Teirab has gained traction with endorsements from local GOP figures and focus on economic issues, narrowing the gap from summer surveys. With early voting underway ahead of the November 5 election, turnout among moderates in this battleground district remains the key uncertainty reflected in the competitive pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Angie Craig holds a steady lead in MN-02 polling averages, around 8 points ahead of Republican challenger Joe Teirab, driving trader consensus to 58.5% for the Democratic Party amid the district's suburban Democratic lean and her fundraising advantage exceeding $3 million. Recent developments include a late September Star Tribune/MPR News poll showing Craig at 50% to Teirab's 42%, bolstered by strong independent support and national generic ballot trends favoring Democrats slightly. Teirab has gained traction with endorsements from local GOP figures and focus on economic issues, narrowing the gap from summer surveys. With early voting underway ahead of the November 5 election, turnout among moderates in this battleground district remains the key uncertainty reflected in the competitive pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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