Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a clear edge in the Minnesota 1st Congressional District race due to the seat's R+6 partisan voting index and his consistent overperformance in prior cycles, including a 17-point 2024 victory. Both candidates cleared their August 11 primaries with strong margins—Finstad exceeding 90 percent on the Republican side—leaving the November 3 general election as a head-to-head contest. Recent campaign finance reports show roughly equal fundraising near $2 million each, while Democratic nominee Jake Johnson, a first-time candidate, has emphasized town halls and targeted outreach in growing population centers like Rochester and Mankato. Independent ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the contest as Likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus that the district's rural and agricultural base continues to favor the incumbent despite Democratic efforts to close the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-01 House Election Winner
MN-01 House Election Winner
$47,413 Vol.
$47,413 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Brad Finstad (R)
76%
Jake Johnson (D)
23%
$47,413 Vol.
$47,413 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Brad Finstad (R)
$17,217 Vol.
76%
Jake Johnson (D)
$30,196 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a clear edge in the Minnesota 1st Congressional District race due to the seat's R+6 partisan voting index and his consistent overperformance in prior cycles, including a 17-point 2024 victory. Both candidates cleared their August 11 primaries with strong margins—Finstad exceeding 90 percent on the Republican side—leaving the November 3 general election as a head-to-head contest. Recent campaign finance reports show roughly equal fundraising near $2 million each, while Democratic nominee Jake Johnson, a first-time candidate, has emphasized town halls and targeted outreach in growing population centers like Rochester and Mankato. Independent ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the contest as Likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus that the district's rural and agricultural base continues to favor the incumbent despite Democratic efforts to close the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$47,413End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a clear edge in the Minnesota 1st Congressional District race due to the seat's R+6 partisan voting index and his consistent overperformance in prior cycles, including a 17-point 2024 victory. Both candidates cleared their August 11 primaries with strong margins—Finstad exceeding 90 percent on the Republican side—leaving the November 3 general election as a head-to-head contest. Recent campaign finance reports show roughly equal fundraising near $2 million each, while Democratic nominee Jake Johnson, a first-time candidate, has emphasized town halls and targeted outreach in growing population centers like Rochester and Mankato. Independent ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the contest as Likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus that the district's rural and agricultural base continues to favor the incumbent despite Democratic efforts to close the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,413End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a clear edge in the Minnesota 1st Congressional District race due to the seat's R+6 partisan voting index and his consistent overperformance in prior cycles, including a 17-point 2024 victory. Both candidates cleared their August 11 primaries with strong margins—Finstad exceeding 90 percent on the Republican side—leaving the November 3 general election as a head-to-head contest. Recent campaign finance reports show roughly equal fundraising near $2 million each, while Democratic nominee Jake Johnson, a first-time candidate, has emphasized town halls and targeted outreach in growing population centers like Rochester and Mankato. Independent ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the contest as Likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus that the district's rural and agricultural base continues to favor the incumbent despite Democratic efforts to close the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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