Brad Finstad holds a clear edge in trader consensus for Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District due to the district’s established Republican lean, his incumbency advantage, and stronger historical performance in a rural, agriculture-focused seat that Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Recent polling averages show a much tighter contest, with several surveys placing the race within a point or two amid voter concerns over affordability, tariffs, and related costs. Jake Johnson has narrowed the gap through superior fundraising—over $3.2 million raised versus Finstad’s roughly $2.6 million—robust small-donor support, and heavy Democratic outside spending on ads. With Election Day one week away on November 3, prediction markets continue to price in the structural factors favoring the Republican incumbent despite the polling volatility.