Brad Finstad holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District, a seat with an R+6 partisan voting index that he carried by 17 points in 2024. Trader consensus at 76% for Finstad versus 23% for Democrat Jake Johnson reflects the district’s structural Republican lean, Finstad’s established name recognition, and consistent fundraising parity that has not yet translated into polling shifts. Johnson, a high school math teacher who secured his nomination in the August primary, has drawn national Democratic support through the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, competitive cash totals near $2 million each, and an endorsement from former Republican Governor Arne Carlson. Recent campaign activity centers on Johnson’s emphasis on town halls, fiscal oversight, and local issues in growing areas such as Rochester and Mankato, yet these factors have not overcome baseline Republican advantages with six weeks remaining until the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-01 House Election Winner
MN-01 House Election Winner
$47,411 Vol.
$47,411 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Brad Finstad (R)
76%
Jake Johnson (D)
23%
$47,411 Vol.
$47,411 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Brad Finstad (R)
$17,215 Vol.
76%
Jake Johnson (D)
$30,196 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Brad Finstad holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District, a seat with an R+6 partisan voting index that he carried by 17 points in 2024. Trader consensus at 76% for Finstad versus 23% for Democrat Jake Johnson reflects the district’s structural Republican lean, Finstad’s established name recognition, and consistent fundraising parity that has not yet translated into polling shifts. Johnson, a high school math teacher who secured his nomination in the August primary, has drawn national Democratic support through the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, competitive cash totals near $2 million each, and an endorsement from former Republican Governor Arne Carlson. Recent campaign activity centers on Johnson’s emphasis on town halls, fiscal oversight, and local issues in growing areas such as Rochester and Mankato, yet these factors have not overcome baseline Republican advantages with six weeks remaining until the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$47,411End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Brad Finstad holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District, a seat with an R+6 partisan voting index that he carried by 17 points in 2024. Trader consensus at 76% for Finstad versus 23% for Democrat Jake Johnson reflects the district’s structural Republican lean, Finstad’s established name recognition, and consistent fundraising parity that has not yet translated into polling shifts. Johnson, a high school math teacher who secured his nomination in the August primary, has drawn national Democratic support through the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, competitive cash totals near $2 million each, and an endorsement from former Republican Governor Arne Carlson. Recent campaign activity centers on Johnson’s emphasis on town halls, fiscal oversight, and local issues in growing areas such as Rochester and Mankato, yet these factors have not overcome baseline Republican advantages with six weeks remaining until the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,411End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Brad Finstad holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District, a seat with an R+6 partisan voting index that he carried by 17 points in 2024. Trader consensus at 76% for Finstad versus 23% for Democrat Jake Johnson reflects the district’s structural Republican lean, Finstad’s established name recognition, and consistent fundraising parity that has not yet translated into polling shifts. Johnson, a high school math teacher who secured his nomination in the August primary, has drawn national Democratic support through the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, competitive cash totals near $2 million each, and an endorsement from former Republican Governor Arne Carlson. Recent campaign activity centers on Johnson’s emphasis on town halls, fiscal oversight, and local issues in growing areas such as Rochester and Mankato, yet these factors have not overcome baseline Republican advantages with six weeks remaining until the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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