Incumbent Republican Tom Emmer holds a commanding position in the MN-06 House race, reflected in the trader consensus favoring him at 90.5% implied probability over Democratic challenger Doug Chapin at 7.5%. Emmer, serving as House Majority Whip and seeking a seventh term, secured his party's nomination with over 80% in the August primary after winning the district by double digits in prior cycles. The seat's consistent Republican tilt—evident in recent presidential results—combined with limited polling and low national attention on the contest, reinforces this outlook ahead of the November general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late developments such as major scandals, health events, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban areas, though structural factors like incumbency and district composition limit realistic shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-06 House Election Winner
MN-06 House Election Winner
$44,136 Vol.
$44,136 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Tom Emmer (R)
91%
Doug Chapin (D)
8%
$44,136 Vol.
$44,136 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Tom Emmer (R)
$25,068 Vol.
91%
Doug Chapin (D)
$19,068 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom Emmer holds a commanding position in the MN-06 House race, reflected in the trader consensus favoring him at 90.5% implied probability over Democratic challenger Doug Chapin at 7.5%. Emmer, serving as House Majority Whip and seeking a seventh term, secured his party's nomination with over 80% in the August primary after winning the district by double digits in prior cycles. The seat's consistent Republican tilt—evident in recent presidential results—combined with limited polling and low national attention on the contest, reinforces this outlook ahead of the November general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late developments such as major scandals, health events, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban areas, though structural factors like incumbency and district composition limit realistic shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$44,136End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom Emmer holds a commanding position in the MN-06 House race, reflected in the trader consensus favoring him at 90.5% implied probability over Democratic challenger Doug Chapin at 7.5%. Emmer, serving as House Majority Whip and seeking a seventh term, secured his party's nomination with over 80% in the August primary after winning the district by double digits in prior cycles. The seat's consistent Republican tilt—evident in recent presidential results—combined with limited polling and low national attention on the contest, reinforces this outlook ahead of the November general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late developments such as major scandals, health events, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban areas, though structural factors like incumbency and district composition limit realistic shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$44,136End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Emmer holds a commanding position in the MN-06 House race, reflected in the trader consensus favoring him at 90.5% implied probability over Democratic challenger Doug Chapin at 7.5%. Emmer, serving as House Majority Whip and seeking a seventh term, secured his party's nomination with over 80% in the August primary after winning the district by double digits in prior cycles. The seat's consistent Republican tilt—evident in recent presidential results—combined with limited polling and low national attention on the contest, reinforces this outlook ahead of the November general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late developments such as major scandals, health events, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban areas, though structural factors like incumbency and district composition limit realistic shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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