Incumbent Republican Andy Harris holds a commanding position in Maryland’s 1st Congressional District race due to the area’s consistent Republican lean, encompassing the Eastern Shore along with portions of Harford and Baltimore counties, and his long record of comfortable re-election victories, including 59 percent in 2024. Harris cleared his June 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote and maintains a substantial fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Dan Schwartz, who advanced narrowly from a competitive primary. Recent polling shows Harris ahead, though the margin remains narrower than historical results. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages while recognizing that late-cycle national shifts, unexpected campaign developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-01 House Election Winner
MD-01 House Election Winner
$62,384 Vol.
$62,384 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Andy Harris (R)
91%
Dan Schwartz (D)
10%
$62,384 Vol.
$62,384 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Andy Harris (R)
$34,712 Vol.
91%
Dan Schwartz (D)
$27,673 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Andy Harris holds a commanding position in Maryland’s 1st Congressional District race due to the area’s consistent Republican lean, encompassing the Eastern Shore along with portions of Harford and Baltimore counties, and his long record of comfortable re-election victories, including 59 percent in 2024. Harris cleared his June 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote and maintains a substantial fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Dan Schwartz, who advanced narrowly from a competitive primary. Recent polling shows Harris ahead, though the margin remains narrower than historical results. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages while recognizing that late-cycle national shifts, unexpected campaign developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$62,384End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Andy Harris holds a commanding position in Maryland’s 1st Congressional District race due to the area’s consistent Republican lean, encompassing the Eastern Shore along with portions of Harford and Baltimore counties, and his long record of comfortable re-election victories, including 59 percent in 2024. Harris cleared his June 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote and maintains a substantial fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Dan Schwartz, who advanced narrowly from a competitive primary. Recent polling shows Harris ahead, though the margin remains narrower than historical results. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages while recognizing that late-cycle national shifts, unexpected campaign developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$62,384End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Andy Harris holds a commanding position in Maryland’s 1st Congressional District race due to the area’s consistent Republican lean, encompassing the Eastern Shore along with portions of Harford and Baltimore counties, and his long record of comfortable re-election victories, including 59 percent in 2024. Harris cleared his June 2026 primary with roughly 80 percent of the vote and maintains a substantial fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Dan Schwartz, who advanced narrowly from a competitive primary. Recent polling shows Harris ahead, though the margin remains narrower than historical results. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages while recognizing that late-cycle national shifts, unexpected campaign developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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