Maryland’s 1st congressional district remains a Republican-leaning seat on the Eastern Shore with a Partisan Voter Index around R+8. Incumbent Andrew Harris secured renomination comfortably in the June primary and holds a substantial fundraising edge while facing Democrat Dan Schwartz, who prevailed in his party’s contest. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Republican, consistent with a July poll showing Harris ahead by double digits. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects the district’s structural tilt, Harris’s incumbency, and the absence of major recent disruptions. A significant national Democratic surge, late scandal, or unexpected health event involving the incumbent could still narrow the margin before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-01 House Election Winner
MD-01 House Election Winner
$58,309 Vol.
$58,309 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
5%
$58,309 Vol.
$58,309 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$33,314 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$24,995 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 1st congressional district remains a Republican-leaning seat on the Eastern Shore with a Partisan Voter Index around R+8. Incumbent Andrew Harris secured renomination comfortably in the June primary and holds a substantial fundraising edge while facing Democrat Dan Schwartz, who prevailed in his party’s contest. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Republican, consistent with a July poll showing Harris ahead by double digits. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects the district’s structural tilt, Harris’s incumbency, and the absence of major recent disruptions. A significant national Democratic surge, late scandal, or unexpected health event involving the incumbent could still narrow the margin before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$58,309End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 1st congressional district remains a Republican-leaning seat on the Eastern Shore with a Partisan Voter Index around R+8. Incumbent Andrew Harris secured renomination comfortably in the June primary and holds a substantial fundraising edge while facing Democrat Dan Schwartz, who prevailed in his party’s contest. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Republican, consistent with a July poll showing Harris ahead by double digits. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects the district’s structural tilt, Harris’s incumbency, and the absence of major recent disruptions. A significant national Democratic surge, late scandal, or unexpected health event involving the incumbent could still narrow the margin before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$58,309End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 1st congressional district remains a Republican-leaning seat on the Eastern Shore with a Partisan Voter Index around R+8. Incumbent Andrew Harris secured renomination comfortably in the June primary and holds a substantial fundraising edge while facing Democrat Dan Schwartz, who prevailed in his party’s contest. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Republican, consistent with a July poll showing Harris ahead by double digits. Trader consensus at 93.5% Republican reflects the district’s structural tilt, Harris’s incumbency, and the absence of major recent disruptions. A significant national Democratic surge, late scandal, or unexpected health event involving the incumbent could still narrow the margin before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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