Recent polling in Maine’s 2026 Senate race shows a toss-up between incumbent Republican Susan Collins and Democratic nominee Troy Jackson, with mixed results driving the current trader consensus. A New York Times/Siena survey released in late September gave Collins a narrow 49-46 lead—her first edge since Graham Platner withdrew in July—boosting her standing on character and delivering federal resources, particularly among white voters without college degrees. Other surveys, including University of New Hampshire and UMass Lowell polls, maintain Jackson’s small advantage. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up, with early voting beginning October 5 and crossover support from 2024 Democratic voters remaining decisive. Jackson’s progressive profile and working-class background sustain his slight market edge despite Collins’ long incumbency.