Troy Jackson holds a strong lead in trader consensus for Maine’s 2026 Senate race, reflecting the state’s recent Democratic tilt, his selection as nominee after Graham Platner’s July withdrawal amid allegations, and his appeal as a former state Senate president and logger with deep rural roots. Recent September polling shows a toss-up, with UNH and UMass Lowell surveys giving Jackson narrow edges while a NYT/Siena poll found Susan Collins ahead by three points among likely voters. Collins, the five-term incumbent, benefits from crossover support and higher favorability in some surveys, yet heavy Republican ad spending and questions around a shelved FBI inquiry tied to an ally have not shifted the race decisively. The November 3 contest uses ranked-choice voting in a state Trump lost in 2024, keeping both candidates’ paths narrow and dependent on independent turnout and late momentum.