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Politique·Chambre Des Représentants

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politique·Chambre Des Représentants

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 90%

Matt Ortega 12.4%

Victor Aguilar Jr. 6.7%

Carin Elam 4.1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Aisha Wahab 90%

Matt Ortega 12.4%

Victor Aguilar Jr. 6.7%

Carin Elam 4.1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Aisha Wahab

$550 Vol.

76%

Melissa Hernandez

$325 Vol.

37%

Wendy Huang

$530 Vol.

4%

Carin Elam

$253 Vol.

4%

Matt Ortega

$226 Vol.

12%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$743 Vol.

9%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$220 Vol.

7%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab holds the strongest position among candidates in the June 16 special primary for California's 14th Congressional District, driven by her California Democratic Party endorsement and status as the sole state senator in the field following Eric Swalwell's April resignation. The heavily Democratic East Bay district favors established Democratic contenders in the nonpartisan top-two primary, where a majority win avoids an August runoff. Recent early vote counts and party unification efforts have reinforced Wahab's lead, while fragmented support among other Democrats such as former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez and additional challengers has limited their shares. Traders appear to price in low odds of a Republican breakthrough or surprise Democratic upset in the final days before voting concludes.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$2,847
Date de fin
18 août 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab holds the strongest position among candidates in the June 16 special primary for California's 14th Congressional District, driven by her California Democratic Party endorsement and status as the sole state senator in the field following Eric Swalwell's April resignation. The heavily Democratic East Bay district favors established Democratic contenders in the nonpartisan top-two primary, where a majority win avoids an August runoff. Recent early vote counts and party unification efforts have reinforced Wahab's lead, while fragmented support among other Democrats such as former Dublin mayor Melissa Hernandez and additional challengers has limited their shares. Traders appear to price in low odds of a Republican breakthrough or surprise Democratic upset in the final days before voting concludes.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$2,847
Date de fin
18 août 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

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Questions fréquentes

« CA-14 Special Election Winner? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Aisha Wahab » à 76%, suivi de « Melissa Hernandez » à 37%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 76¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 76% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« CA-14 Special Election Winner? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Apr 16, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « CA-14 Special Election Winner? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « CA-14 Special Election Winner? » est « Aisha Wahab » à 76%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 76% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Melissa Hernandez » à 37%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « CA-14 Special Election Winner? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.