The June 2 primary produced early returns with incumbent Karen Bass at approximately 35% and Spencer Pratt ahead of Nithya Raman for second place, yielding a margin near six points that aligns with trader focus on a 5–10% Bass lead. Pre-election polling showed a statistical tie among the three, with Bass holding a slim edge that remained flat while challengers gained ground. Ongoing mail-ballot counting, expected to favor Democratic-leaning voters, has narrowed Pratt’s advantage over Raman without threatening Bass’s advance to the November runoff. No candidate approached the 50% threshold needed to win outright, leaving the precise first-round spread dependent on remaining ballots and sustaining market emphasis on the narrowest Bass victory band.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLA Mayoral Election: 1st Round Margin of Victory?
LA Mayoral Election: 1st Round Margin of Victory?
Bass 5–10% 74%
Bass 0–5% 15.0%
Bass 10–15% 5.1%
Pratt Wins <1%
$133,955 Vol.
$133,955 Vol.
2 juin 2026
Bass 0–5%
23%
Bass 5–10%
72%
Bass 10–15%
5%
Bass 15%+
<1%
Pratt Wins
1%
Raman Wins
<1%
Other
<1%
Bass 5–10% 74%
Bass 0–5% 15.0%
Bass 10–15% 5.1%
Pratt Wins <1%
$133,955 Vol.
$133,955 Vol.
2 juin 2026
Bass 0–5%
$24,485 Vol.
23%
Bass 5–10%
$18,003 Vol.
72%
Bass 10–15%
$24,275 Vol.
5%
Bass 15%+
$8,169 Vol.
<1%
Pratt Wins
$35,166 Vol.
1%
Raman Wins
$12,745 Vol.
<1%
Other
$11,112 Vol.
<1%
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The June 2 primary produced early returns with incumbent Karen Bass at approximately 35% and Spencer Pratt ahead of Nithya Raman for second place, yielding a margin near six points that aligns with trader focus on a 5–10% Bass lead. Pre-election polling showed a statistical tie among the three, with Bass holding a slim edge that remained flat while challengers gained ground. Ongoing mail-ballot counting, expected to favor Democratic-leaning voters, has narrowed Pratt’s advantage over Raman without threatening Bass’s advance to the November runoff. No candidate approached the 50% threshold needed to win outright, leaving the precise first-round spread dependent on remaining ballots and sustaining market emphasis on the narrowest Bass victory band.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ET
Volume
$133,955Date de fin
2 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The June 2 primary produced early returns with incumbent Karen Bass at approximately 35% and Spencer Pratt ahead of Nithya Raman for second place, yielding a margin near six points that aligns with trader focus on a 5–10% Bass lead. Pre-election polling showed a statistical tie among the three, with Bass holding a slim edge that remained flat while challengers gained ground. Ongoing mail-ballot counting, expected to favor Democratic-leaning voters, has narrowed Pratt’s advantage over Raman without threatening Bass’s advance to the November runoff. No candidate approached the 50% threshold needed to win outright, leaving the precise first-round spread dependent on remaining ballots and sustaining market emphasis on the narrowest Bass victory band.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$133,955Date de fin
2 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The June 2 primary produced early returns with incumbent Karen Bass at approximately 35% and Spencer Pratt ahead of Nithya Raman for second place, yielding a margin near six points that aligns with trader focus on a 5–10% Bass lead. Pre-election polling showed a statistical tie among the three, with Bass holding a slim edge that remained flat while challengers gained ground. Ongoing mail-ballot counting, expected to favor Democratic-leaning voters, has narrowed Pratt’s advantage over Raman without threatening Bass’s advance to the November runoff. No candidate approached the 50% threshold needed to win outright, leaving the precise first-round spread dependent on remaining ballots and sustaining market emphasis on the narrowest Bass victory band.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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