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Politics·Michigan

MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Michigan

MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Shri Thanedar 57%

Donavan McKinney 39%

Nazmul Hassan 3.1%

Anthony Carbonaro 2.8%

Polymarket

$22,221 Vol.

Shri Thanedar 57%

Donavan McKinney 39%

Nazmul Hassan 3.1%

Anthony Carbonaro 2.8%

Polymarket

$22,221 Vol.

Shri Thanedar

$974 Vol.

54%

Donavan McKinney

$20,206 Vol.

39%

Nazmul Hassan

$355 Vol.

3%

Anthony Carbonaro

$354 Vol.

3%

Shelby Campbell

$332 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar leads trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability for Michigan's 13th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, bolstered by his incumbency advantage and dominant fundraising—holding millions in cash on hand from self-funding as a wealthy former businessman—despite progressive criticisms. State Rep. Donavan McKinney trails at 38.5%, gaining traction from endorsements by Justice Democrats, National Nurses United, and local Black leaders in Detroit's east side, where he grew up and collects nominating petitions actively. Thanedar's March 23 interview defended his record amid challenger attacks, while a mid-March voter anecdote highlighted low constituent awareness of his work. With no public polls, odds reflect resource disparities in this safely Democratic battleground district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,221
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 3:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar leads trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability for Michigan's 13th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, bolstered by his incumbency advantage and dominant fundraising—holding millions in cash on hand from self-funding as a wealthy former businessman—despite progressive criticisms. State Rep. Donavan McKinney trails at 38.5%, gaining traction from endorsements by Justice Democrats, National Nurses United, and local Black leaders in Detroit's east side, where he grew up and collects nominating petitions actively. Thanedar's March 23 interview defended his record amid challenger attacks, while a mid-March voter anecdote highlighted low constituent awareness of his work. With no public polls, odds reflect resource disparities in this safely Democratic battleground district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,221
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 3:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Shri Thanedar" at 54%, followed by "Donavan McKinney" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $22.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Shri Thanedar" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Donavan McKinney" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.