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Elections·Primaries

MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner

Jeremy Moss 92%

Don Ufford 4.3%

Dave Woodward 3.2%

Andy Levin 2.9%

Polymarket

$15,816 Vol.

Jeremy Moss 92%

Don Ufford 4.3%

Dave Woodward 3.2%

Andy Levin 2.9%

Polymarket

$15,816 Vol.

Jeremy Moss

$6,321 Vol.

92%

Don Ufford

$89 Vol.

4%

Dave Woodward

$270 Vol.

3%

Andy Levin

$3,551 Vol.

3%

Aisha Farooqi

$5,586 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Senate President Pro Tem Jeremy Moss commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to win Michigan's 11th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, reflecting his dominant fundraising lead—nearly $1 million raised and $572,000 cash on hand through late March, per FEC reports highlighted April 16—dwarfing Don Ufford's $672,000 raised and $347,000 cash, with others trailing further. This open-seat race follows Rep. Haley Stevens's Senate bid, positioning Moss as the establishment favorite with endorsements from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, AG Dana Nessel, and over 60 local officials, plus first ballot access. Absent public polls, traders weigh his financial and organizational edge in the Oakland County-heavy district. Challengers could gain via scandals, endorsement shifts, strong debate showings, or late fundraising surges before summer voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$15,816
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Senate President Pro Tem Jeremy Moss commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to win Michigan's 11th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, reflecting his dominant fundraising lead—nearly $1 million raised and $572,000 cash on hand through late March, per FEC reports highlighted April 16—dwarfing Don Ufford's $672,000 raised and $347,000 cash, with others trailing further. This open-seat race follows Rep. Haley Stevens's Senate bid, positioning Moss as the establishment favorite with endorsements from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, AG Dana Nessel, and over 60 local officials, plus first ballot access. Absent public polls, traders weigh his financial and organizational edge in the Oakland County-heavy district. Challengers could gain via scandals, endorsement shifts, strong debate showings, or late fundraising surges before summer voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$15,816
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jeremy Moss" at 92%, followed by "Don Ufford" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $15.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Jeremy Moss" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Don Ufford" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.