Skip to main content
icon for MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner

MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner

MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Callie Barr 99.6%

Kyle Blomquist <1%

Wayne Stiles <1%

Polymarket

$83,017 Vol.

Callie Barr 99.6%

Kyle Blomquist <1%

Wayne Stiles <1%

Polymarket

$83,017 Vol.

icon for Callie Barr

Callie Barr

$42,176 Vol.

Yes

icon for Kyle Blomquist

Kyle Blomquist

$38,600 Vol.

No

icon for Wayne Stiles

Wayne Stiles

$2,241 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Callie Barr secured overwhelming trader consensus in the Michigan 1st Congressional District Democratic primary due to her status as the 2024 nominee, superior fundraising exceeding $800,000, and established profile as a Traverse City attorney, military spouse, and veterans advocate with deep local roots. Kyle Blomquist, an Iron Mountain city councilor and architect who raised roughly $245,000, and Wayne Stiles, an industrial designer with minimal resources, lacked comparable visibility or infrastructure across the sprawling rural district spanning the Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula. The August 4 primary date, combined with early voting and verified campaign metrics, reinforced these structural advantages. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or successful legal challenge to results could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such factors have emerged.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$83,017
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Callie Barr secured overwhelming trader consensus in the Michigan 1st Congressional District Democratic primary due to her status as the 2024 nominee, superior fundraising exceeding $800,000, and established profile as a Traverse City attorney, military spouse, and veterans advocate with deep local roots. Kyle Blomquist, an Iron Mountain city councilor and architect who raised roughly $245,000, and Wayne Stiles, an industrial designer with minimal resources, lacked comparable visibility or infrastructure across the sprawling rural district spanning the Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula. The August 4 primary date, combined with early voting and verified campaign metrics, reinforced these structural advantages. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or successful legal challenge to results could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such factors have emerged.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$83,017
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Callie Barr" at 100%, followed by "Kyle Blomquist" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $83K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Callie Barr" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kyle Blomquist" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.