David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary through a narrow upset victory, capturing 39.8% of the vote to Francesca Hong's 39.3% after trailing significantly in earlier polling. Key drivers included Governor Tony Evers' endorsement following Crowley's reentry into the race, strong turnout and support in the Milwaukee area, and negative press surrounding Hong's past social media activity. Other candidates' withdrawals consolidated moderate support behind the Milwaukee County executive. While official certification appears imminent, potential challenges could arise from recounts or disputes over write-in ballots, though historical precedent shows such reversals remain rare in Wisconsin primaries with clear margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCrowley wins 98.7%
Hong 30%+ <1%
Hong 25–30% <1%
Hong 20–25% <1%
$218,035 Vol.
$218,035 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Hong 30%+
No
Hong 25–30%
No
Hong 20–25%
No
Hong 15–20%
No
Hong 10–15%
No
Hong 5–10%
No
Hong <5%
No
Crowley wins
Yes
Barnes wins
No
Crowley wins 98.7%
Hong 30%+ <1%
Hong 25–30% <1%
Hong 20–25% <1%
$218,035 Vol.
$218,035 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Hong 30%+
$80,404 Vol.
No
Hong 25–30%
$43,716 Vol.
No
Hong 20–25%
$8,559 Vol.
No
Hong 15–20%
$4,911 Vol.
No
Hong 10–15%
$8,562 Vol.
No
Hong 5–10%
$31,881 Vol.
No
Hong <5%
$18,890 Vol.
No
Crowley wins
$19,209 Vol.
Yes
Barnes wins
$1,903 Vol.
No
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary through a narrow upset victory, capturing 39.8% of the vote to Francesca Hong's 39.3% after trailing significantly in earlier polling. Key drivers included Governor Tony Evers' endorsement following Crowley's reentry into the race, strong turnout and support in the Milwaukee area, and negative press surrounding Hong's past social media activity. Other candidates' withdrawals consolidated moderate support behind the Milwaukee County executive. While official certification appears imminent, potential challenges could arise from recounts or disputes over write-in ballots, though historical precedent shows such reversals remain rare in Wisconsin primaries with clear margins.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 9:19 PM ET
Volume
$218,035End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 9:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary through a narrow upset victory, capturing 39.8% of the vote to Francesca Hong's 39.3% after trailing significantly in earlier polling. Key drivers included Governor Tony Evers' endorsement following Crowley's reentry into the race, strong turnout and support in the Milwaukee area, and negative press surrounding Hong's past social media activity. Other candidates' withdrawals consolidated moderate support behind the Milwaukee County executive. While official certification appears imminent, potential challenges could arise from recounts or disputes over write-in ballots, though historical precedent shows such reversals remain rare in Wisconsin primaries with clear margins.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$218,035End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 9:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11 primary through a narrow upset victory, capturing 39.8% of the vote to Francesca Hong's 39.3% after trailing significantly in earlier polling. Key drivers included Governor Tony Evers' endorsement following Crowley's reentry into the race, strong turnout and support in the Milwaukee area, and negative press surrounding Hong's past social media activity. Other candidates' withdrawals consolidated moderate support behind the Milwaukee County executive. While official certification appears imminent, potential challenges could arise from recounts or disputes over write-in ballots, though historical precedent shows such reversals remain rare in Wisconsin primaries with clear margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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