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icon for Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

icon for Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

55% chance
Polymarket
NEW
55% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/). Voters in Washington face a closely contested November 3, 2026, decision on the Sex Verification Requirements for Female School Sports Initiative, an indirect initiated state statute that would bar biologically male students from female-designated school athletic teams and mandate healthcare-provider documentation of sex based on reproductive anatomy, genetics, or testosterone levels. The measure qualified after signature gathering and legislative inaction, following a June 2026 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that upheld similar state restrictions elsewhere. Supporters, led by Let’s Go Washington, emphasize fairness and safety in girls’ sports, while opponents organized under No Hate in WA State highlight inclusion policies in place since 2007 and argue the verification process raises privacy concerns. Fundraising favors backers, yet Washington’s political environment and divided public sentiment sustain the narrow trader consensus around passage. Upcoming campaign developments, polling shifts, or turnout patterns could alter the balance before election day.

Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Volume
$431
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/). Voters in Washington face a closely contested November 3, 2026, decision on the Sex Verification Requirements for Female School Sports Initiative, an indirect initiated state statute that would bar biologically male students from female-designated school athletic teams and mandate healthcare-provider documentation of sex based on reproductive anatomy, genetics, or testosterone levels. The measure qualified after signature gathering and legislative inaction, following a June 2026 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that upheld similar state restrictions elsewhere. Supporters, led by Let’s Go Washington, emphasize fairness and safety in girls’ sports, while opponents organized under No Hate in WA State highlight inclusion policies in place since 2007 and argue the verification process raises privacy concerns. Fundraising favors backers, yet Washington’s political environment and divided public sentiment sustain the narrow trader consensus around passage. Upcoming campaign developments, polling shifts, or turnout patterns could alter the balance before election day.

Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Volume
$431
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 53% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 53¢, the market collectively assigns a 53% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?" is 53% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 53% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.