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icon for MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·US Election

MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·US Election

MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner

Jordan Herrera 100.0%

Jeanette Cass <1%

Hartzell Gray <1%

Randy Miller <1%

Polymarket

$66,890 Vol.

Jordan Herrera 100.0%

Jeanette Cass <1%

Hartzell Gray <1%

Randy Miller <1%

Polymarket

$66,890 Vol.

icon for Jeanette Cass

Jeanette Cass

$1,238 Vol.

No

icon for Hartzell Gray

Hartzell Gray

$42,913 Vol.

No

icon for Jordan Herrera

Jordan Herrera

$19,707 Vol.

Yes

icon for Randy Miller

Randy Miller

$825 Vol.

No

icon for G Rick

G Rick

$914 Vol.

No

icon for Ashleigh Rogers

Ashleigh Rogers

$831 Vol.

No

icon for Wayne Russell

Wayne Russell

$463 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jordan Herrera secured the Democratic nomination for Missouri's 4th congressional district in the August 4, 2026 primary, driving the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. As an Air Force veteran, attorney, and former state official, she outperformed a crowded field that included Hartzell Gray, Jeanette Cass, Ashleigh Rogers, and others. Partial results showed her ahead by several points with most precincts reporting, consistent with standard primary vote-counting patterns in the district. With the election concluded, only routine certification steps or an unusually close final tally could alter the outcome before markets resolve.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$66,890
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 5:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jordan Herrera secured the Democratic nomination for Missouri's 4th congressional district in the August 4, 2026 primary, driving the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. As an Air Force veteran, attorney, and former state official, she outperformed a crowded field that included Hartzell Gray, Jeanette Cass, Ashleigh Rogers, and others. Partial results showed her ahead by several points with most precincts reporting, consistent with standard primary vote-counting patterns in the district. With the election concluded, only routine certification steps or an unusually close final tally could alter the outcome before markets resolve.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$66,890
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 5:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jordan Herrera" at 100%, followed by "Jeanette Cass" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $66.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Jordan Herrera" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jeanette Cass" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.