Farage's strong local base in the Brexit-supporting Clacton constituency, combined with the absence of major party challengers after Labour, Conservatives, and others declined to stand, underpins trader expectations of a comfortable win. The July resignation to trigger the by-election and recontest the seat has drawn national attention but has not materially dented support in local polling, with a early-August Survation survey showing Farage at 73% against Count Binface on 20%. A record 34 candidates, including novelty and single-issue entrants, are likely to fragment the remaining vote and limit any protest effect. This dynamic positions a 40-60% share as the consensus range, while the smaller probability attached to 60%+ reflects the potential for Binface or independents to draw enough support to cap the Reform UK leader's total in a multi-candidate field. The by-election resolves on 13 August.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarage 40-60% 65.7%
Farage 60%+ 24%
Farage 20-40% 8.7%
Farage <20% 1.9%
$142,049 Vol.
$142,049 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Farage 60%+
24%
Farage 40-60%
66%
Farage 20-40%
9%
Farage <20%
2%
Count Binface
1%
Other
<1%
Farage 40-60% 65.7%
Farage 60%+ 24%
Farage 20-40% 8.7%
Farage <20% 1.9%
$142,049 Vol.
$142,049 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Farage 60%+
$59,216 Vol.
24%
Farage 40-60%
$17,679 Vol.
66%
Farage 20-40%
$23,803 Vol.
9%
Farage <20%
$17,201 Vol.
2%
Count Binface
$9,324 Vol.
1%
Other
$14,827 Vol.
<1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Farage's strong local base in the Brexit-supporting Clacton constituency, combined with the absence of major party challengers after Labour, Conservatives, and others declined to stand, underpins trader expectations of a comfortable win. The July resignation to trigger the by-election and recontest the seat has drawn national attention but has not materially dented support in local polling, with a early-August Survation survey showing Farage at 73% against Count Binface on 20%. A record 34 candidates, including novelty and single-issue entrants, are likely to fragment the remaining vote and limit any protest effect. This dynamic positions a 40-60% share as the consensus range, while the smaller probability attached to 60%+ reflects the potential for Binface or independents to draw enough support to cap the Reform UK leader's total in a multi-candidate field. The by-election resolves on 13 August.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 11:29 PM ET
Volume
$142,049End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 11:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Farage's strong local base in the Brexit-supporting Clacton constituency, combined with the absence of major party challengers after Labour, Conservatives, and others declined to stand, underpins trader expectations of a comfortable win. The July resignation to trigger the by-election and recontest the seat has drawn national attention but has not materially dented support in local polling, with a early-August Survation survey showing Farage at 73% against Count Binface on 20%. A record 34 candidates, including novelty and single-issue entrants, are likely to fragment the remaining vote and limit any protest effect. This dynamic positions a 40-60% share as the consensus range, while the smaller probability attached to 60%+ reflects the potential for Binface or independents to draw enough support to cap the Reform UK leader's total in a multi-candidate field. The by-election resolves on 13 August.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$142,049End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 11:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Farage's strong local base in the Brexit-supporting Clacton constituency, combined with the absence of major party challengers after Labour, Conservatives, and others declined to stand, underpins trader expectations of a comfortable win. The July resignation to trigger the by-election and recontest the seat has drawn national attention but has not materially dented support in local polling, with a early-August Survation survey showing Farage at 73% against Count Binface on 20%. A record 34 candidates, including novelty and single-issue entrants, are likely to fragment the remaining vote and limit any protest effect. This dynamic positions a 40-60% share as the consensus range, while the smaller probability attached to 60%+ reflects the potential for Binface or independents to draw enough support to cap the Reform UK leader's total in a multi-candidate field. The by-election resolves on 13 August.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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