Bob Onder's commanding position in the Missouri 3rd district race stems from his incumbency in a solidly Republican seat, where he secured 61.3% in 2024 and prevailed in the August 2026 primary with 66.3% of the vote. The district's partisan lean, reflected in consistent Republican advantages in presidential and generic ballot metrics, combined with Onder's substantial fundraising edge of roughly $950,000 to Bethany Mann's $43,000, has reinforced trader consensus. Mann advanced from her primary with 69.1% but faces structural headwinds in a district rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters. Potential shifts could arise from a late redistricting court ruling altering boundaries, a significant national political realignment, or an unforeseen candidate-specific development before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-03 House Election Winner
MO-03 House Election Winner
$35,865 Vol.
$35,865 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Bob Onder (R)
94%
Bethany Mann (D)
4%
$35,865 Vol.
$35,865 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Bob Onder (R)
$17,402 Vol.
94%
Bethany Mann (D)
$18,463 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Bob Onder's commanding position in the Missouri 3rd district race stems from his incumbency in a solidly Republican seat, where he secured 61.3% in 2024 and prevailed in the August 2026 primary with 66.3% of the vote. The district's partisan lean, reflected in consistent Republican advantages in presidential and generic ballot metrics, combined with Onder's substantial fundraising edge of roughly $950,000 to Bethany Mann's $43,000, has reinforced trader consensus. Mann advanced from her primary with 69.1% but faces structural headwinds in a district rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters. Potential shifts could arise from a late redistricting court ruling altering boundaries, a significant national political realignment, or an unforeseen candidate-specific development before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$35,865End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Bob Onder's commanding position in the Missouri 3rd district race stems from his incumbency in a solidly Republican seat, where he secured 61.3% in 2024 and prevailed in the August 2026 primary with 66.3% of the vote. The district's partisan lean, reflected in consistent Republican advantages in presidential and generic ballot metrics, combined with Onder's substantial fundraising edge of roughly $950,000 to Bethany Mann's $43,000, has reinforced trader consensus. Mann advanced from her primary with 69.1% but faces structural headwinds in a district rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters. Potential shifts could arise from a late redistricting court ruling altering boundaries, a significant national political realignment, or an unforeseen candidate-specific development before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,865End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Bob Onder's commanding position in the Missouri 3rd district race stems from his incumbency in a solidly Republican seat, where he secured 61.3% in 2024 and prevailed in the August 2026 primary with 66.3% of the vote. The district's partisan lean, reflected in consistent Republican advantages in presidential and generic ballot metrics, combined with Onder's substantial fundraising edge of roughly $950,000 to Bethany Mann's $43,000, has reinforced trader consensus. Mann advanced from her primary with 69.1% but faces structural headwinds in a district rated Safe or Solid Republican by major forecasters. Potential shifts could arise from a late redistricting court ruling altering boundaries, a significant national political realignment, or an unforeseen candidate-specific development before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions