The Parti Québécois maintains its position as the clear frontrunner for the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, driven by steady polling at around 30 percent—particularly strong among francophone voters—and seat projections that consistently favor it forming government under the first-past-the-post system. This edge stems from the sharp decline of the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec following François Legault’s departure and the selection of Christine Fréchette as leader, which has left the party polling near 20 percent amid lingering voter fatigue. The Quebec Liberal Party, under Charles Milliard, holds second place in recent surveys at 24-27 percent but trails in francophone support and projected ridings. With roughly half of voters still undecided and only weeks until the vote, shifts among key blocs could narrow the gap, though current consensus and historical patterns of late deciders reinforce the PQ’s lead in trader assessments.