Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois maintaining a steady lead near 29 percent among decided voters, well ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec, which has slipped to third place around 21–24 percent after an earlier surge tied to trade policy handling faded. The Parti libéral du Québec has gained modestly to 22–23 percent, concentrated in the Montreal area, while the Parti conservateur du Québec reaches new highs near 17 percent. Seat models project the PQ winning the most ridings in roughly 80–91 percent of simulations, driven by concentrated francophone support that converts its vote share into a plurality advantage despite the likelihood of a minority outcome. With the October 5 election three weeks away, recent CAQ controversies and stable PQ positioning among key demographics continue to underpin trader consensus on the frontrunner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 81%
CAQ 16%
PLQ 3.5%
PCQ <1%
$928,203 Vol.
$928,203 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
81%
CAQ
16%
PLQ
3%
PCQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 81%
CAQ 16%
PLQ 3.5%
PCQ <1%
$928,203 Vol.
$928,203 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
$132,797 Vol.
81%
CAQ
$142,111 Vol.
16%
PLQ
$138,638 Vol.
3%
PCQ
$250,612 Vol.
<1%
QS
$106,523 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois maintaining a steady lead near 29 percent among decided voters, well ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec, which has slipped to third place around 21–24 percent after an earlier surge tied to trade policy handling faded. The Parti libéral du Québec has gained modestly to 22–23 percent, concentrated in the Montreal area, while the Parti conservateur du Québec reaches new highs near 17 percent. Seat models project the PQ winning the most ridings in roughly 80–91 percent of simulations, driven by concentrated francophone support that converts its vote share into a plurality advantage despite the likelihood of a minority outcome. With the October 5 election three weeks away, recent CAQ controversies and stable PQ positioning among key demographics continue to underpin trader consensus on the frontrunner.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$928,203End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois maintaining a steady lead near 29 percent among decided voters, well ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec, which has slipped to third place around 21–24 percent after an earlier surge tied to trade policy handling faded. The Parti libéral du Québec has gained modestly to 22–23 percent, concentrated in the Montreal area, while the Parti conservateur du Québec reaches new highs near 17 percent. Seat models project the PQ winning the most ridings in roughly 80–91 percent of simulations, driven by concentrated francophone support that converts its vote share into a plurality advantage despite the likelihood of a minority outcome. With the October 5 election three weeks away, recent CAQ controversies and stable PQ positioning among key demographics continue to underpin trader consensus on the frontrunner.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$928,203End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois maintaining a steady lead near 29 percent among decided voters, well ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec, which has slipped to third place around 21–24 percent after an earlier surge tied to trade policy handling faded. The Parti libéral du Québec has gained modestly to 22–23 percent, concentrated in the Montreal area, while the Parti conservateur du Québec reaches new highs near 17 percent. Seat models project the PQ winning the most ridings in roughly 80–91 percent of simulations, driven by concentrated francophone support that converts its vote share into a plurality advantage despite the likelihood of a minority outcome. With the October 5 election three weeks away, recent CAQ controversies and stable PQ positioning among key demographics continue to underpin trader consensus on the frontrunner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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