Market icon
Politics·Russia

How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?

Market icon
Politics·Russia

How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?

340–354 32%

355+ 30%

310–324 16.4%

325–339 13%

Polymarket
NEW

340–354 32%

355+ 30%

310–324 16.4%

325–339 13%

Polymarket
NEW

<280

$0 Vol.

4%

280–294

$0 Vol.

8%

295–309

$0 Vol.

10%

310–324

$0 Vol.

15%

325–339

$232 Vol.

21%

340–354

$265 Vol.

39%

355+

$5,394 Vol.

36%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus prices United Russia securing 340–354 seats at 38.5% or 355+ at 36%, reflecting March 2026 polls from FOM and VCIOM showing party-list support stabilizing at 30–41% amid steady Communist Party and LDPR shares of 8–10%. This mixed system—225 proportional seats above a 5% threshold and 225 single-member districts—positions United Russia for dominance in the latter, bolstered by 2025 redistricting adding constituencies in occupied Ukrainian regions and Kremlin promotion of pro-war candidates since January. The tight race persists due to fluctuating poll trends and uncertainty over voter turnout, administrative resources, and war impacts, with candidate nominations and President Putin's endorsements as key catalysts before the September 20 deadline that could push toward a supermajority.

Trader consensus prices United Russia securing 340–354 seats at 38.5% or 355+ at 36%, reflecting March 2026 polls from FOM and VCIOM showing party-list support stabilizing at 30–41% amid steady Communist Party and LDPR shares of 8–10%. This mixed system—225 proportional seats above a 5% threshold and 225 single-member districts—positions United Russia for dominance in the latter, bolstered by 2025 redistricting adding constituencies in occupied Ukrainian regions and Kremlin promotion of pro-war candidates since January. The tight race persists due to fluctuating poll trends and uncertainty over voter turnout, administrative resources, and war impacts, with candidate nominations and President Putin's endorsements as key catalysts before the September 20 deadline that could push toward a supermajority.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus prices United Russia securing 340–354 seats at 38.5% or 355+ at 36%, reflecting March 2026 polls from FOM and VCIOM showing party-list support stabilizing at 30–41% amid steady Communist Party and LDPR shares of 8–10%. This mixed system—225 proportional seats above a 5% threshold and 225 single-member districts—positions United Russia for dominance in the latter, bolstered by 2025 redistricting adding constituencies in occupied Ukrainian regions and Kremlin promotion of pro-war candidates since January. The tight race persists due to fluctuating poll trends and uncertainty over voter turnout, administrative resources, and war impacts, with candidate nominations and President Putin's endorsements as key catalysts before the September 20 deadline that could push toward a supermajority.

Trader consensus prices United Russia securing 340–354 seats at 38.5% or 355+ at 36%, reflecting March 2026 polls from FOM and VCIOM showing party-list support stabilizing at 30–41% amid steady Communist Party and LDPR shares of 8–10%. This mixed system—225 proportional seats above a 5% threshold and 225 single-member districts—positions United Russia for dominance in the latter, bolstered by 2025 redistricting adding constituencies in occupied Ukrainian regions and Kremlin promotion of pro-war candidates since January. The tight race persists due to fluctuating poll trends and uncertainty over voter turnout, administrative resources, and war impacts, with candidate nominations and President Putin's endorsements as key catalysts before the September 20 deadline that could push toward a supermajority.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "340–354" at 39%, followed by "355+" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 7, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" is "340–354" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "355+" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.