Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election. The district maintains a strong Republican tilt even after recent redistricting that incorporated additional urban and suburban voters from the Kansas City area, shifting its partisan lean closer to a 10-point Republican advantage. Alford secured the nomination with over 77 percent in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Jordan Herrera prevailed in a crowded field but faces significant fundraising and organizational gaps. Trader consensus in the market aligns with nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican. Potential shifts could arise from an unusually large national Democratic turnout surge, major late developments affecting either candidate, or final court resolutions altering district boundaries before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-04 House Election Winner
MO-04 House Election Winner
$50,468 Vol.
$50,468 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mark Alford (R)
93%
Jordan Herrera (D)
8%
$50,468 Vol.
$50,468 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mark Alford (R)
$32,792 Vol.
93%
Jordan Herrera (D)
$17,676 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election. The district maintains a strong Republican tilt even after recent redistricting that incorporated additional urban and suburban voters from the Kansas City area, shifting its partisan lean closer to a 10-point Republican advantage. Alford secured the nomination with over 77 percent in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Jordan Herrera prevailed in a crowded field but faces significant fundraising and organizational gaps. Trader consensus in the market aligns with nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican. Potential shifts could arise from an unusually large national Democratic turnout surge, major late developments affecting either candidate, or final court resolutions altering district boundaries before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$50,468End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election. The district maintains a strong Republican tilt even after recent redistricting that incorporated additional urban and suburban voters from the Kansas City area, shifting its partisan lean closer to a 10-point Republican advantage. Alford secured the nomination with over 77 percent in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Jordan Herrera prevailed in a crowded field but faces significant fundraising and organizational gaps. Trader consensus in the market aligns with nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican. Potential shifts could arise from an unusually large national Democratic turnout surge, major late developments affecting either candidate, or final court resolutions altering district boundaries before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,468End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election. The district maintains a strong Republican tilt even after recent redistricting that incorporated additional urban and suburban voters from the Kansas City area, shifting its partisan lean closer to a 10-point Republican advantage. Alford secured the nomination with over 77 percent in the August 4 primary, while Democrat Jordan Herrera prevailed in a crowded field but faces significant fundraising and organizational gaps. Trader consensus in the market aligns with nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Republican. Potential shifts could arise from an unusually large national Democratic turnout surge, major late developments affecting either candidate, or final court resolutions altering district boundaries before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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