Missouri's 5th congressional district has been redrawn under the state's new map to include more Republican-leaning areas around Kansas City, shifting the seat from a Democratic hold into a competitive or Republican-favored contest ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver faces a Republican primary on August 4 featuring multiple candidates, including state Sen. Rick Brattin and Taylor Burks, with outside spending heavily concentrated on the contest. Ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as solid or likely Republican, reflecting the map's impact on voter composition and historical performance trends in the redrawn boundaries. A potential referendum on the map remains a procedural variable but has not altered the current trader consensus reflected in the odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-05 House Election Winner
MO-05 House Election Winner
$10,678 Vol.
$10,678 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
16%
$10,678 Vol.
$10,678 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$8,060 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$2,618 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 5th congressional district has been redrawn under the state's new map to include more Republican-leaning areas around Kansas City, shifting the seat from a Democratic hold into a competitive or Republican-favored contest ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver faces a Republican primary on August 4 featuring multiple candidates, including state Sen. Rick Brattin and Taylor Burks, with outside spending heavily concentrated on the contest. Ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as solid or likely Republican, reflecting the map's impact on voter composition and historical performance trends in the redrawn boundaries. A potential referendum on the map remains a procedural variable but has not altered the current trader consensus reflected in the odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$10,678End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 5th congressional district has been redrawn under the state's new map to include more Republican-leaning areas around Kansas City, shifting the seat from a Democratic hold into a competitive or Republican-favored contest ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver faces a Republican primary on August 4 featuring multiple candidates, including state Sen. Rick Brattin and Taylor Burks, with outside spending heavily concentrated on the contest. Ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as solid or likely Republican, reflecting the map's impact on voter composition and historical performance trends in the redrawn boundaries. A potential referendum on the map remains a procedural variable but has not altered the current trader consensus reflected in the odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,678End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 5th congressional district has been redrawn under the state's new map to include more Republican-leaning areas around Kansas City, shifting the seat from a Democratic hold into a competitive or Republican-favored contest ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver faces a Republican primary on August 4 featuring multiple candidates, including state Sen. Rick Brattin and Taylor Burks, with outside spending heavily concentrated on the contest. Ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as solid or likely Republican, reflecting the map's impact on voter composition and historical performance trends in the redrawn boundaries. A potential referendum on the map remains a procedural variable but has not altered the current trader consensus reflected in the odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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