Emanuel Cleaver holds a dominant position in the Missouri 5th District race due to the Missouri Supreme Court’s September rulings that blocked the Republican-drawn congressional map from applying in November and required use of the prior boundaries. Those lines preserve a district centered on Democratic-leaning portions of Kansas City, where the 11-term incumbent has consistently won by wide margins. Rick Brattin, the Republican nominee who prevailed in the August primary under the invalidated map, now campaigns in territory rated solidly Democratic by multiple forecasters, with limited recent polling showing Cleaver ahead by more than 20 points. A pending lawsuit challenging Brattin’s nomination and any successful appeals of the map decision represent the main remaining variables that could alter the November outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$31,801 Vol.
$31,801 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Emanuel Cleaver (D)
94%
Rick Brattin (R)
5%
$31,801 Vol.
$31,801 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Emanuel Cleaver (D)
$12,645 Vol.
94%
Rick Brattin (R)
$19,155 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Emanuel Cleaver holds a dominant position in the Missouri 5th District race due to the Missouri Supreme Court’s September rulings that blocked the Republican-drawn congressional map from applying in November and required use of the prior boundaries. Those lines preserve a district centered on Democratic-leaning portions of Kansas City, where the 11-term incumbent has consistently won by wide margins. Rick Brattin, the Republican nominee who prevailed in the August primary under the invalidated map, now campaigns in territory rated solidly Democratic by multiple forecasters, with limited recent polling showing Cleaver ahead by more than 20 points. A pending lawsuit challenging Brattin’s nomination and any successful appeals of the map decision represent the main remaining variables that could alter the November outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$31,801End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Emanuel Cleaver holds a dominant position in the Missouri 5th District race due to the Missouri Supreme Court’s September rulings that blocked the Republican-drawn congressional map from applying in November and required use of the prior boundaries. Those lines preserve a district centered on Democratic-leaning portions of Kansas City, where the 11-term incumbent has consistently won by wide margins. Rick Brattin, the Republican nominee who prevailed in the August primary under the invalidated map, now campaigns in territory rated solidly Democratic by multiple forecasters, with limited recent polling showing Cleaver ahead by more than 20 points. A pending lawsuit challenging Brattin’s nomination and any successful appeals of the map decision represent the main remaining variables that could alter the November outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,801End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Emanuel Cleaver holds a dominant position in the Missouri 5th District race due to the Missouri Supreme Court’s September rulings that blocked the Republican-drawn congressional map from applying in November and required use of the prior boundaries. Those lines preserve a district centered on Democratic-leaning portions of Kansas City, where the 11-term incumbent has consistently won by wide margins. Rick Brattin, the Republican nominee who prevailed in the August primary under the invalidated map, now campaigns in territory rated solidly Democratic by multiple forecasters, with limited recent polling showing Cleaver ahead by more than 20 points. A pending lawsuit challenging Brattin’s nomination and any successful appeals of the map decision represent the main remaining variables that could alter the November outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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