Missouri's redrawn congressional map, enacted in September 2025 after a special legislative session and upheld amid legal challenges, has shifted the 5th district's partisan balance by incorporating additional rural and suburban areas in western and central Missouri. This change produced a Republican-leaning partisan voting index and transformed the long-held Democratic seat into a contest where the GOP holds a clear edge in the November 2026 general election. A voter referendum on the map qualified for the ballot in March 2026 but does not alter the current lines ahead of the August 4 primaries. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver faces a crowded Republican primary featuring candidates such as state Sen. Rick Brattin, while traders weigh the new district composition, historical turnout patterns in Kansas City and surrounding counties, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions as the primary drivers of the Republican advantage in the race.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Republican Party
72%
Democratic Party
27%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Republican Party
$1,943 거래량
72%
Democratic Party
$1,284 거래량
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's redrawn congressional map, enacted in September 2025 after a special legislative session and upheld amid legal challenges, has shifted the 5th district's partisan balance by incorporating additional rural and suburban areas in western and central Missouri. This change produced a Republican-leaning partisan voting index and transformed the long-held Democratic seat into a contest where the GOP holds a clear edge in the November 2026 general election. A voter referendum on the map qualified for the ballot in March 2026 but does not alter the current lines ahead of the August 4 primaries. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver faces a crowded Republican primary featuring candidates such as state Sen. Rick Brattin, while traders weigh the new district composition, historical turnout patterns in Kansas City and surrounding counties, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions as the primary drivers of the Republican advantage in the race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
거래량
$3,227종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's redrawn congressional map, enacted in September 2025 after a special legislative session and upheld amid legal challenges, has shifted the 5th district's partisan balance by incorporating additional rural and suburban areas in western and central Missouri. This change produced a Republican-leaning partisan voting index and transformed the long-held Democratic seat into a contest where the GOP holds a clear edge in the November 2026 general election. A voter referendum on the map qualified for the ballot in March 2026 but does not alter the current lines ahead of the August 4 primaries. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver faces a crowded Republican primary featuring candidates such as state Sen. Rick Brattin, while traders weigh the new district composition, historical turnout patterns in Kansas City and surrounding counties, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions as the primary drivers of the Republican advantage in the race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$3,227종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's redrawn congressional map, enacted in September 2025 after a special legislative session and upheld amid legal challenges, has shifted the 5th district's partisan balance by incorporating additional rural and suburban areas in western and central Missouri. This change produced a Republican-leaning partisan voting index and transformed the long-held Democratic seat into a contest where the GOP holds a clear edge in the November 2026 general election. A voter referendum on the map qualified for the ballot in March 2026 but does not alter the current lines ahead of the August 4 primaries. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver faces a crowded Republican primary featuring candidates such as state Sen. Rick Brattin, while traders weigh the new district composition, historical turnout patterns in Kansas City and surrounding counties, and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions as the primary drivers of the Republican advantage in the race.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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