Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Name: Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner
Start: 2025-11-27T00:08:31.965Z
End: 2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z

Politics·Primaries

Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Chuck Smith 32%

David Williams 22%

Bert Mizusawa 20%

Al Mina 15.3%

$1,172,601 Vol.

Jun 16, 2026

Chuck Smith

$2,973 Vol.

32%

David Williams

$11,880 Vol.

22%

Bert Mizusawa

$3,500 Vol.

20%

Al Mina

$821,325 Vol.

15%

Kim Farington

$299,708 Vol.

Jason Miyares

$13,369 Vol.

Bryce Reeves

$10,416 Vol.

Alex De Paula

$2,358 Vol.

Winsome Earle-Sears

$7,073 Vol.

Chuck Smith 32%

David Williams 22%

Bert Mizusawa 20%

Al Mina 15.3%

$1,172,601 Vol.

Jun 16, 2026

Chuck Smith

$2,973 Vol.

32%

David Williams

$11,880 Vol.

22%

Bert Mizusawa

$3,500 Vol.

20%

Al Mina

$821,325 Vol.

15%

Kim Farington

$299,708 Vol.

Jason Miyares

$13,369 Vol.

Bryce Reeves

$10,416 Vol.

Alex De Paula

$2,358 Vol.

Winsome Earle-Sears

$7,073 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Trader consensus in the Virginia Republican U.S. Senate primary slightly favors state Del. Chuck Smith ahead of the June 18 contest, with his 31.5% implied probability reflecting grassroots momentum from conservative voters, while David Williams, Bert Mizusawa, and Al Mina trail closely at 22.5%, 19.5%, and 15.3%, respectively, in a fragmented nine-candidate field splitting GOP support. Recent Virginia FREE polling from early June showed Smith edging Williams amid competitive fundraising and no dominant endorsements from Donald Trump or Gov. Glenn Youngkin, keeping the race tight despite early voting underway. Dynamics hinge on turnout among military veterans (favoring Mizusawa) and urban conservatives (bolstering Williams); a late Trump endorsement, final debate gaffe, or scandal could sharply separate frontrunners before polls close.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 25, 2026, 11:43 PM UTC

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

26%

Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?

22%

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

48%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Chuck Smith" at 32%, followed by "David Williams" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 27, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Chuck Smith" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "David Williams" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.2 million traded on “Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 32¢ for "Chuck Smith" in the "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 32% chance that "Chuck Smith" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 32¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 68¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 16, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner" market has a growing discussion of 4 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

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