Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District race because the open seat sits in a reliably Republican area that delivered a 20-point GOP margin in 2024 and carries “Solid Republican” or “Safe” ratings from multiple forecasters. Lamb secured the nomination in the July 21 primary with 58.7 percent after earning President Trump’s endorsement and defeating a self-funded rival, while Democrat Elizabeth Lee prevailed in her primary with 66 percent but faces structural headwinds in fundraising and district demographics. The general election is set for November 3. Late-breaking developments such as intensified scrutiny of prior allegations against Lamb or an unexpected surge in Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus reflects the district’s consistent partisan tilt and limited competitive history.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-05 House Election Winner
AZ-05 House Election Winner
$37,312 Vol.
$37,312 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mark Lamb (R)
92%
Elizabeth Lee (D)
9%
$37,312 Vol.
$37,312 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mark Lamb (R)
$20,874 Vol.
92%
Elizabeth Lee (D)
$16,438 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District race because the open seat sits in a reliably Republican area that delivered a 20-point GOP margin in 2024 and carries “Solid Republican” or “Safe” ratings from multiple forecasters. Lamb secured the nomination in the July 21 primary with 58.7 percent after earning President Trump’s endorsement and defeating a self-funded rival, while Democrat Elizabeth Lee prevailed in her primary with 66 percent but faces structural headwinds in fundraising and district demographics. The general election is set for November 3. Late-breaking developments such as intensified scrutiny of prior allegations against Lamb or an unexpected surge in Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus reflects the district’s consistent partisan tilt and limited competitive history.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$37,312End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District race because the open seat sits in a reliably Republican area that delivered a 20-point GOP margin in 2024 and carries “Solid Republican” or “Safe” ratings from multiple forecasters. Lamb secured the nomination in the July 21 primary with 58.7 percent after earning President Trump’s endorsement and defeating a self-funded rival, while Democrat Elizabeth Lee prevailed in her primary with 66 percent but faces structural headwinds in fundraising and district demographics. The general election is set for November 3. Late-breaking developments such as intensified scrutiny of prior allegations against Lamb or an unexpected surge in Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus reflects the district’s consistent partisan tilt and limited competitive history.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$37,312End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District race because the open seat sits in a reliably Republican area that delivered a 20-point GOP margin in 2024 and carries “Solid Republican” or “Safe” ratings from multiple forecasters. Lamb secured the nomination in the July 21 primary with 58.7 percent after earning President Trump’s endorsement and defeating a self-funded rival, while Democrat Elizabeth Lee prevailed in her primary with 66 percent but faces structural headwinds in fundraising and district demographics. The general election is set for November 3. Late-breaking developments such as intensified scrutiny of prior allegations against Lamb or an unexpected surge in Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus reflects the district’s consistent partisan tilt and limited competitive history.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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