Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in the AZ-05 general election race because the district is a solidly Republican seat that supported the GOP presidential nominee by roughly 20 points in 2024. Lamb, the former Pinal County sheriff, secured the nomination in the July 21 primary with Trump’s endorsement and a 58-59% margin over self-funded rival Daniel Keenan, despite prior allegations of misconduct that did not derail his support among primary voters. Elizabeth Lee, a nurse who won the Democratic primary, faces structural barriers in a district long represented by Republicans and rated safe or likely Republican by major forecasters. The November 3 contest remains low-risk for the GOP nominee absent a major late development such as a new scandal or sharp national swing that boosts Democratic turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-05 House Election Winner
AZ-05 House Election Winner
$37,312 Vol.
$37,312 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mark Lamb (R)
92%
Elizabeth Lee (D)
9%
$37,312 Vol.
$37,312 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mark Lamb (R)
$20,874 Vol.
92%
Elizabeth Lee (D)
$16,438 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in the AZ-05 general election race because the district is a solidly Republican seat that supported the GOP presidential nominee by roughly 20 points in 2024. Lamb, the former Pinal County sheriff, secured the nomination in the July 21 primary with Trump’s endorsement and a 58-59% margin over self-funded rival Daniel Keenan, despite prior allegations of misconduct that did not derail his support among primary voters. Elizabeth Lee, a nurse who won the Democratic primary, faces structural barriers in a district long represented by Republicans and rated safe or likely Republican by major forecasters. The November 3 contest remains low-risk for the GOP nominee absent a major late development such as a new scandal or sharp national swing that boosts Democratic turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$37,312End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in the AZ-05 general election race because the district is a solidly Republican seat that supported the GOP presidential nominee by roughly 20 points in 2024. Lamb, the former Pinal County sheriff, secured the nomination in the July 21 primary with Trump’s endorsement and a 58-59% margin over self-funded rival Daniel Keenan, despite prior allegations of misconduct that did not derail his support among primary voters. Elizabeth Lee, a nurse who won the Democratic primary, faces structural barriers in a district long represented by Republicans and rated safe or likely Republican by major forecasters. The November 3 contest remains low-risk for the GOP nominee absent a major late development such as a new scandal or sharp national swing that boosts Democratic turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$37,312End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in the AZ-05 general election race because the district is a solidly Republican seat that supported the GOP presidential nominee by roughly 20 points in 2024. Lamb, the former Pinal County sheriff, secured the nomination in the July 21 primary with Trump’s endorsement and a 58-59% margin over self-funded rival Daniel Keenan, despite prior allegations of misconduct that did not derail his support among primary voters. Elizabeth Lee, a nurse who won the Democratic primary, faces structural barriers in a district long represented by Republicans and rated safe or likely Republican by major forecasters. The November 3 contest remains low-risk for the GOP nominee absent a major late development such as a new scandal or sharp national swing that boosts Democratic turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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