Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in the AZ-05 general election due to the district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP presidential candidates in recent cycles. As an open seat following Andy Biggs’s retirement, the race features Lamb, the former Pinal County sheriff who secured the Republican nomination with Trump’s endorsement and roughly 59 percent of the primary vote despite prior allegations he denied. Elizabeth Lee, a nurse who won the Democratic primary, faces structural headwinds in this East Valley district spanning parts of Maricopa and Pinal counties. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican. Late developments such as renewed scrutiny of Lamb’s record or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s historical voting patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-05 House Election Winner
AZ-05 House Election Winner
$37,312 Vol.
$37,312 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mark Lamb (R)
92%
Elizabeth Lee (D)
9%
$37,312 Vol.
$37,312 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mark Lamb (R)
$20,874 Vol.
92%
Elizabeth Lee (D)
$16,438 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in the AZ-05 general election due to the district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP presidential candidates in recent cycles. As an open seat following Andy Biggs’s retirement, the race features Lamb, the former Pinal County sheriff who secured the Republican nomination with Trump’s endorsement and roughly 59 percent of the primary vote despite prior allegations he denied. Elizabeth Lee, a nurse who won the Democratic primary, faces structural headwinds in this East Valley district spanning parts of Maricopa and Pinal counties. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican. Late developments such as renewed scrutiny of Lamb’s record or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s historical voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$37,312End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in the AZ-05 general election due to the district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP presidential candidates in recent cycles. As an open seat following Andy Biggs’s retirement, the race features Lamb, the former Pinal County sheriff who secured the Republican nomination with Trump’s endorsement and roughly 59 percent of the primary vote despite prior allegations he denied. Elizabeth Lee, a nurse who won the Democratic primary, faces structural headwinds in this East Valley district spanning parts of Maricopa and Pinal counties. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican. Late developments such as renewed scrutiny of Lamb’s record or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s historical voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$37,312End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in the AZ-05 general election due to the district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP presidential candidates in recent cycles. As an open seat following Andy Biggs’s retirement, the race features Lamb, the former Pinal County sheriff who secured the Republican nomination with Trump’s endorsement and roughly 59 percent of the primary vote despite prior allegations he denied. Elizabeth Lee, a nurse who won the Democratic primary, faces structural headwinds in this East Valley district spanning parts of Maricopa and Pinal counties. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican. Late developments such as renewed scrutiny of Lamb’s record or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s historical voting patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions