**Redistricting after the Supreme Court decision has shifted Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District to a Republican-leaning seat, with the new lines projected to favor Donald Trump by roughly 14 points based on 2024 results.** This structural change positions Republican nominee Rhett Marques, who secured the GOP primary with 50% of the vote on August 11 and carries endorsements from Trump and Sen. Katie Britt, as the consensus favorite. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures, unopposed in his primary, remains competitive through strong fundraising parity near $1.3 million each, DCCC ad support, and recent internal polls showing statistical ties or narrow margins around R+4. Key variables include turnout among the district’s approximately 40% Black voters, voter priorities on affordability and local issues, and the November 3 general election outcome in this battleground seat rated Likely Republican by Cook and Lean Republican by Sabato’s Crystal Ball.