Gwen Moore's commanding position in the WI-04 House race stems from the district's deep Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent results such as her 74.8% share in 2024. As the incumbent since 2005 and Wisconsin's longest-serving House member, Moore secured renomination in the August 2026 primary with over 70% of the vote against a challenger. Republican nominee Tim Rogers, who also ran in prior cycles, faces the same structural barriers in a Milwaukee-centered district that has favored Democrats by wide margins for decades. Independent Arthur Burks appears on the November 3 ballot but lacks comparable visibility or resources. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 97.5% for Moore aligns with these factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-04 House Election Winner
WI-04 House Election Winner
$36,788 Vol.
$36,788 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Gwen Moore (D)
97%
Tim Rogers (R)
1%
$36,788 Vol.
$36,788 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Gwen Moore (D)
$14,357 Vol.
97%
Tim Rogers (R)
$22,431 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gwen Moore's commanding position in the WI-04 House race stems from the district's deep Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent results such as her 74.8% share in 2024. As the incumbent since 2005 and Wisconsin's longest-serving House member, Moore secured renomination in the August 2026 primary with over 70% of the vote against a challenger. Republican nominee Tim Rogers, who also ran in prior cycles, faces the same structural barriers in a Milwaukee-centered district that has favored Democrats by wide margins for decades. Independent Arthur Burks appears on the November 3 ballot but lacks comparable visibility or resources. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 97.5% for Moore aligns with these factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$36,788End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gwen Moore's commanding position in the WI-04 House race stems from the district's deep Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent results such as her 74.8% share in 2024. As the incumbent since 2005 and Wisconsin's longest-serving House member, Moore secured renomination in the August 2026 primary with over 70% of the vote against a challenger. Republican nominee Tim Rogers, who also ran in prior cycles, faces the same structural barriers in a Milwaukee-centered district that has favored Democrats by wide margins for decades. Independent Arthur Burks appears on the November 3 ballot but lacks comparable visibility or resources. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 97.5% for Moore aligns with these factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,788End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Gwen Moore's commanding position in the WI-04 House race stems from the district's deep Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent results such as her 74.8% share in 2024. As the incumbent since 2005 and Wisconsin's longest-serving House member, Moore secured renomination in the August 2026 primary with over 70% of the vote against a challenger. Republican nominee Tim Rogers, who also ran in prior cycles, faces the same structural barriers in a Milwaukee-centered district that has favored Democrats by wide margins for decades. Independent Arthur Burks appears on the November 3 ballot but lacks comparable visibility or resources. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 97.5% for Moore aligns with these factors, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national political shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions