Gwen Moore's commanding position in the WI-04 House race stems from the district's entrenched Democratic lean, anchored in Milwaukee County and surrounding areas that have delivered consistent margins exceeding 50 points for the party in recent cycles. As the long-serving incumbent first elected in 2004 and renominated after defeating a primary challenger in August 2026, Moore benefits from name recognition, established fundraising, and structural advantages that have produced repeated victories, including 74.8% in 2024. Republican nominee Tim Rogers, who prevailed in his party's low-turnout primary, faces the same headwinds in a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. Trader consensus at 97% for Moore reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political realignment before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-04 House Election Winner
WI-04 House Election Winner
$36,788 Vol.
$36,788 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Gwen Moore (D)
97%
Tim Rogers (R)
1%
$36,788 Vol.
$36,788 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Gwen Moore (D)
$14,357 Vol.
97%
Tim Rogers (R)
$22,431 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gwen Moore's commanding position in the WI-04 House race stems from the district's entrenched Democratic lean, anchored in Milwaukee County and surrounding areas that have delivered consistent margins exceeding 50 points for the party in recent cycles. As the long-serving incumbent first elected in 2004 and renominated after defeating a primary challenger in August 2026, Moore benefits from name recognition, established fundraising, and structural advantages that have produced repeated victories, including 74.8% in 2024. Republican nominee Tim Rogers, who prevailed in his party's low-turnout primary, faces the same headwinds in a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. Trader consensus at 97% for Moore reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political realignment before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$36,788End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Gwen Moore's commanding position in the WI-04 House race stems from the district's entrenched Democratic lean, anchored in Milwaukee County and surrounding areas that have delivered consistent margins exceeding 50 points for the party in recent cycles. As the long-serving incumbent first elected in 2004 and renominated after defeating a primary challenger in August 2026, Moore benefits from name recognition, established fundraising, and structural advantages that have produced repeated victories, including 74.8% in 2024. Republican nominee Tim Rogers, who prevailed in his party's low-turnout primary, faces the same headwinds in a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. Trader consensus at 97% for Moore reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political realignment before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,788End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Gwen Moore's commanding position in the WI-04 House race stems from the district's entrenched Democratic lean, anchored in Milwaukee County and surrounding areas that have delivered consistent margins exceeding 50 points for the party in recent cycles. As the long-serving incumbent first elected in 2004 and renominated after defeating a primary challenger in August 2026, Moore benefits from name recognition, established fundraising, and structural advantages that have produced repeated victories, including 74.8% in 2024. Republican nominee Tim Rogers, who prevailed in his party's low-turnout primary, faces the same headwinds in a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. Trader consensus at 97% for Moore reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political realignment before November 3 could theoretically narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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