Incumbent Republican Pete Stauber's commanding position in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 73.5% implied probability for the Republican Party, anchored by the district's Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report and others, where Donald Trump won by 14 points in 2024. Stauber's $1 million cash-on-hand dwarfs Democratic challengers, including recent DFL-endorsed nominee Trina Swanson, who secured over 70% at the May 2 convention but raised far less. Unanimous GOP endorsement further solidifies his path through the August 11 primary, with no district polls challenging fundamentals amid stable Iron Range support. Upcoming primaries could introduce competition, though historical 58% margins favor retention.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-08 House Election Winner
MN-08 House Election Winner
$12,978 Vol.
$12,978 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
74%
Democratic Party
27%
$12,978 Vol.
$12,978 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,590 Vol.
74%
Democratic Party
$6,388 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pete Stauber's commanding position in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 73.5% implied probability for the Republican Party, anchored by the district's Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report and others, where Donald Trump won by 14 points in 2024. Stauber's $1 million cash-on-hand dwarfs Democratic challengers, including recent DFL-endorsed nominee Trina Swanson, who secured over 70% at the May 2 convention but raised far less. Unanimous GOP endorsement further solidifies his path through the August 11 primary, with no district polls challenging fundamentals amid stable Iron Range support. Upcoming primaries could introduce competition, though historical 58% margins favor retention.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$12,978End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pete Stauber's commanding position in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 73.5% implied probability for the Republican Party, anchored by the district's Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report and others, where Donald Trump won by 14 points in 2024. Stauber's $1 million cash-on-hand dwarfs Democratic challengers, including recent DFL-endorsed nominee Trina Swanson, who secured over 70% at the May 2 convention but raised far less. Unanimous GOP endorsement further solidifies his path through the August 11 primary, with no district polls challenging fundamentals amid stable Iron Range support. Upcoming primaries could introduce competition, though historical 58% margins favor retention.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,978End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Pete Stauber's commanding position in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District drives trader consensus toward a 73.5% implied probability for the Republican Party, anchored by the district's Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report and others, where Donald Trump won by 14 points in 2024. Stauber's $1 million cash-on-hand dwarfs Democratic challengers, including recent DFL-endorsed nominee Trina Swanson, who secured over 70% at the May 2 convention but raised far less. Unanimous GOP endorsement further solidifies his path through the August 11 primary, with no district polls challenging fundamentals amid stable Iron Range support. Upcoming primaries could introduce competition, though historical 58% margins favor retention.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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