Incumbent Republican Diana Harshbarger holds a commanding lead in the TN-01 race due to the district’s entrenched Republican tilt, reflected in a strong PVI and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, including a 29-point Trump win in 2024. She advanced unopposed through the August 2026 primary while Democratic nominee Kristi Burke prevailed in a low-turnout contest among limited challengers. Harshbarger’s substantial fundraising edge and the seat’s history of Republican control since the 19th century further reinforce trader consensus. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national partisan swing could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though structural fundamentals make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-01 House Election Winner
TN-01 House Election Winner
$27,122 Vol.
$27,122 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Diana Harshbarger (R)
98%
Kristi Burke (D)
2%
$27,122 Vol.
$27,122 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Diana Harshbarger (R)
$21,682 Vol.
98%
Kristi Burke (D)
$5,439 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Diana Harshbarger holds a commanding lead in the TN-01 race due to the district’s entrenched Republican tilt, reflected in a strong PVI and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, including a 29-point Trump win in 2024. She advanced unopposed through the August 2026 primary while Democratic nominee Kristi Burke prevailed in a low-turnout contest among limited challengers. Harshbarger’s substantial fundraising edge and the seat’s history of Republican control since the 19th century further reinforce trader consensus. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national partisan swing could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though structural fundamentals make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$27,122End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Diana Harshbarger holds a commanding lead in the TN-01 race due to the district’s entrenched Republican tilt, reflected in a strong PVI and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, including a 29-point Trump win in 2024. She advanced unopposed through the August 2026 primary while Democratic nominee Kristi Burke prevailed in a low-turnout contest among limited challengers. Harshbarger’s substantial fundraising edge and the seat’s history of Republican control since the 19th century further reinforce trader consensus. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national partisan swing could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though structural fundamentals make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,122End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Diana Harshbarger holds a commanding lead in the TN-01 race due to the district’s entrenched Republican tilt, reflected in a strong PVI and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, including a 29-point Trump win in 2024. She advanced unopposed through the August 2026 primary while Democratic nominee Kristi Burke prevailed in a low-turnout contest among limited challengers. Harshbarger’s substantial fundraising edge and the seat’s history of Republican control since the 19th century further reinforce trader consensus. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national partisan swing could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election, though structural fundamentals make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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