Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.3% implied probability to win Illinois' 4th Congressional District, reflecting the district's status as a deep-blue stronghold encompassing Chicago's Southwest Side and heavily Latino communities with a strong Democratic voting history. Incumbent Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García opted not to seek reelection last fall, endorsing his chief of staff Patty García, who advanced unopposed in the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo emerged from a low-profile primary, but the district's partisan lean and lack of competitive polling sustain the lopsided odds. Independent candidates like Mayra Macias pose a minor wildcard, though a realistic upset would require a national Republican wave, a major Democratic scandal, or vote-splitting ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIL-04 House Election Winner
IL-04 House Election Winner
$25,807 Vol.
$25,807 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
$25,807 Vol.
$25,807 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$18,033 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$7,774 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.3% implied probability to win Illinois' 4th Congressional District, reflecting the district's status as a deep-blue stronghold encompassing Chicago's Southwest Side and heavily Latino communities with a strong Democratic voting history. Incumbent Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García opted not to seek reelection last fall, endorsing his chief of staff Patty García, who advanced unopposed in the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo emerged from a low-profile primary, but the district's partisan lean and lack of competitive polling sustain the lopsided odds. Independent candidates like Mayra Macias pose a minor wildcard, though a realistic upset would require a national Republican wave, a major Democratic scandal, or vote-splitting ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$25,807End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.3% implied probability to win Illinois' 4th Congressional District, reflecting the district's status as a deep-blue stronghold encompassing Chicago's Southwest Side and heavily Latino communities with a strong Democratic voting history. Incumbent Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García opted not to seek reelection last fall, endorsing his chief of staff Patty García, who advanced unopposed in the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo emerged from a low-profile primary, but the district's partisan lean and lack of competitive polling sustain the lopsided odds. Independent candidates like Mayra Macias pose a minor wildcard, though a realistic upset would require a national Republican wave, a major Democratic scandal, or vote-splitting ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,807End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.3% implied probability to win Illinois' 4th Congressional District, reflecting the district's status as a deep-blue stronghold encompassing Chicago's Southwest Side and heavily Latino communities with a strong Democratic voting history. Incumbent Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García opted not to seek reelection last fall, endorsing his chief of staff Patty García, who advanced unopposed in the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo emerged from a low-profile primary, but the district's partisan lean and lack of competitive polling sustain the lopsided odds. Independent candidates like Mayra Macias pose a minor wildcard, though a realistic upset would require a national Republican wave, a major Democratic scandal, or vote-splitting ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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