Melissa Bean secured the Democratic nomination in the March 17 primary for the open IL-08 seat vacated by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who ran for Senate, defeating a crowded field with 32% amid the district's D+5 partisan lean. Facing Republican nominee Jennifer Davis, a political outsider, traders reflect a commanding 90.5% implied probability on a Democratic win, driven by Bean's prior service representing the district from 2005-2011, fundraising edge exceeding $1.7 million pre-primary, and consistent Democratic margins above 56% in recent cycles per Cook PVI ratings of Solid Democratic. No major developments have emerged since primaries, but a strong Republican national midterm wave, Bean scandal, or Davis fundraising surge could narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-08 House Election Winner
IL-08 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,147 Vol.
91%
Republican Party
$2,500 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Melissa Bean secured the Democratic nomination in the March 17 primary for the open IL-08 seat vacated by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who ran for Senate, defeating a crowded field with 32% amid the district's D+5 partisan lean. Facing Republican nominee Jennifer Davis, a political outsider, traders reflect a commanding 90.5% implied probability on a Democratic win, driven by Bean's prior service representing the district from 2005-2011, fundraising edge exceeding $1.7 million pre-primary, and consistent Democratic margins above 56% in recent cycles per Cook PVI ratings of Solid Democratic. No major developments have emerged since primaries, but a strong Republican national midterm wave, Bean scandal, or Davis fundraising surge could narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$4,647End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Melissa Bean secured the Democratic nomination in the March 17 primary for the open IL-08 seat vacated by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who ran for Senate, defeating a crowded field with 32% amid the district's D+5 partisan lean. Facing Republican nominee Jennifer Davis, a political outsider, traders reflect a commanding 90.5% implied probability on a Democratic win, driven by Bean's prior service representing the district from 2005-2011, fundraising edge exceeding $1.7 million pre-primary, and consistent Democratic margins above 56% in recent cycles per Cook PVI ratings of Solid Democratic. No major developments have emerged since primaries, but a strong Republican national midterm wave, Bean scandal, or Davis fundraising surge could narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$4,647End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Melissa Bean secured the Democratic nomination in the March 17 primary for the open IL-08 seat vacated by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who ran for Senate, defeating a crowded field with 32% amid the district's D+5 partisan lean. Facing Republican nominee Jennifer Davis, a political outsider, traders reflect a commanding 90.5% implied probability on a Democratic win, driven by Bean's prior service representing the district from 2005-2011, fundraising edge exceeding $1.7 million pre-primary, and consistent Democratic margins above 56% in recent cycles per Cook PVI ratings of Solid Democratic. No major developments have emerged since primaries, but a strong Republican national midterm wave, Bean scandal, or Davis fundraising surge could narrow the gap ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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