Republican Alan Wilson holds a consistent edge over Democrat Jermaine Johnson in the open-seat race for South Carolina governor, with a late September-early October poll showing Wilson at 45% to Johnson’s 35% among registered voters. South Carolina’s longstanding Republican advantage and Wilson’s strong primary runoff performance underpin the market’s concentration of probability on a Republican win by 5-15 points. The upcoming November 3 election and the candidates’ October 6 debate remain key near-term catalysts. Johnson’s path to narrowing the margin depends on consolidating undecided voters and boosting turnout in Democratic-leaning areas, while Wilson benefits from the state’s partisan baseline and limited recent shifts in polling aggregates. Market pricing on tighter or wider margins reflects ongoing uncertainty around final turnout and late-campaign momentum.